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The temporal relationship between derivatives trading and spot market volatility in the U.K.: Empirical analysis and Monte Carlo evidence

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  • Kyriacos Kyriacou
  • Lucio Sarno

Abstract

This article examines empirically the dynamic relationship between spot market volatility, futures trading, and options trading in the context of a trivariate simultaneous equations model. The empirical analysis provides strong evidence that significant simultaneity, in addition to feedback, characterizes the relationship between the proxy for time‐varying spot market volatility and derivative trading. Also, futures trading and options trading are found to affect spot market volatility in opposite directions in the structural model proposed. The results, corroborated by Monte Carlo evidence, suggest that the failure to account for any contemporaneous interaction between the variables under consideration, as well as the omission of any of the two derivatives trading activities examined in this study, may generate serious misspecification and ultimately produce misleading estimation results and statistical inference. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 245–270, 1999

Suggested Citation

  • Kyriacos Kyriacou & Lucio Sarno, 1999. "The temporal relationship between derivatives trading and spot market volatility in the U.K.: Empirical analysis and Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 245-270, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:19:y:1999:i:3:p:245-270
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    Cited by:

    1. Lam, Kin & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2016. "Stochastic Dominance and Investors’ Behavior towards Risk: The Hong Kong Stocks and Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 74386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Miralles-Quirós, José Luis & Daza-Izquierdo, Julio, 2015. "Do DOW returns really influence the intraday Spanish stock market behavior?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 99-126.
    3. Md. Mohibul Islam & Anisul M. Islam, 2017. "Impact of Index Options on Emerging Market Volatility: The Case of the Malaysian Equity Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(9), pages 157-15-172, 09-2017.
    4. Ashish Kumar, 2015. "Impact of Currency Futures on Volatility in Exchange Rate," Paradigm, , vol. 19(1), pages 95-108, June.
    5. John M. Fry & Baoying Lai & Mark Rhodes, 2011. "The interdependence of Coffee spot and futures market," Working Papers 2011.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

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