Order Imbalance and the Pricing of Index Futures
This study examines whether the direction and magnitude of the aggregate order-imbalance of the index stocks can explain the arbitrage spread between index futures and the underlying cash index. The data are for the Asian financial crisis period and hence entail wide variations in order imbalance and the index-futures basis. The analysis controls for realistic trading costs and actual dividend payments. The results indicate that the arbitrage spread is positively related to the aggregate order imbalance in the underlying index stocks; negative order-imbalance has a stronger impact than positive order imbalance. Violations of the upper no-arbitrage bound are related to positive order imbalance and violations of the lower no-arbitrage bound are related to negative order imbalance. Asymmetric response times to negative and positive spreads can be attributed to the difficulty, cost, and risk of short stock arbitrage when the futures is below its no-arbitrage value. The significant relationship between order imbalance and arbitrage spread confirm that index arbitrageurs are important providers of liquidity in the futures market when the stock market is in disequilibrium.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 55th Floor , Two International Finance Centre , 8 Finance Street , Central, Hong Kong|
Phone: (852)2878 1978
Fax: (852)2878 7006
Web page: http://www.hkimr.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kleidon, Allan W & Whaley, Robert E, 1992. " One Market? Stocks, Futures, and Options during October 1987," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 851-877, July.
- Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1995.
"The Limits of Arbitrage,"
NBER Working Papers
5167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Sanford J. Grossman, 1987.
"An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies,"
NBER Working Papers
2357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grossman, Sanford J, 1988. "An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 275-98, July.
- Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
- William J. Breen & Laurie Simon Hodrick & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2002. "Predicting Equity Liquidity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(4), pages 470-483, April.
- Locke, P R & Sayers, C L, 1993. "Intra-day Futures Price Volatility: Information Effects and Variance Persistence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 15-30, Jan.-Marc.
- Chan, Kalok & Fong, Wai-Ming, 2000. "Trade size, order imbalance, and the volatility-volume relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 247-273, August.
- David Easley & Maureen O'Hara & P.S. Srinivas, 1998. "Option Volume and Stock Prices: Evidence on Where Informed Traders Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 431-465, 04.
- Neal, Robert, 1996. "Direct Tests of Index Arbitrage Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(04), pages 541-562, December.
- Miller, Merton H & Muthuswamy, Jayaram & Whaley, Robert E, 1994. " Mean Reversion of Standard & Poor's 500 Index Basis Changes: Arbitrage-Induced or Statistical Illusion?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 479-513, June.
- Joseph K. W. Fung & Li Jiang, 1999. "Restrictions on Short-Selling and Spot-Futures Dynamics," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1-2), pages 227-248.
- Harris, Lawrence & Sofianos, George & Shapiro, James E, 1994. "Program Trading and Intraday Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 653-85.
- Kleidon, Allan W, 1992. "Arbitrage, Nontrading, and Stale Prices: October 1987," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(4), pages 483-507, October.
- Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:132006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HKIMR)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.