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Skewness and index futures return

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  • Eric Jondeau
  • Xuewu Wang
  • Zhipeng Yan
  • Qunzi Zhang

Abstract

In this paper, we show that the individual skewness, defined as the average of monthly skewness across firms, performs very well at predicting the return of S&P 500 index futures. This result holds after controlling for the liquidity risk or for the current business cycle conditions. We also find that individual skewness performs very well at predicting index futures returns out‐of‐sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Jondeau & Xuewu Wang & Zhipeng Yan & Qunzi Zhang, 2020. "Skewness and index futures return," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(11), pages 1648-1664, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:40:y:2020:i:11:p:1648-1664
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22112
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Zhikai & He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "Realized skewness and the short-term predictability for aggregate stock market volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Liyan Han & Xinbei Wei & Sen Yan & Qunzi Zhang, 2022. "Analyst rating matters for index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2084-2100, November.
    3. Hui Qu & Tianyang Wang & Peng Shangguan & Mengying He, 2024. "Revisiting the puzzle of jumps in volatility forecasting: The new insights of high‐frequency jump intensity," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 218-251, February.
    4. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Cappellen, Jef, 2023. "Can average skewness really predict financial returns? The euro area case," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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