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Direct Tests of Index Arbitrage Models

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  • Neal, Robert

Abstract

Previous tests of stock index arbitrage models have rejected the no-arbitrage constraint imposed by these models. This paper provides a detailed analysis of actual S&P 500 arbitrage trades and directly relates these trades to the predictions of index arbitrage models. An analysis of arbitrage trades suggests that i) short-sale rules are unlikely to affect the cash-futures mispricing, ii) the opportunity cost of arbitrage funds exceeds the Treasury bill rate, and iii) the average price discrepancy captured by arbitrage trades is small. Tests of the models provide some support for a version of the arbitrage model that incorporates an early liquidation option. The ability of these models to explain arbitrage trades, however, is surprisingly low.

Suggested Citation

  • Neal, Robert, 1996. "Direct Tests of Index Arbitrage Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 541-562, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:31:y:1996:i:04:p:541-562_02
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Hyginus Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-482, September.
    2. Henker, Thomas & Martens, Martin, 2005. "Index futures arbitrage before and after the introduction of sixteenths on the NYSE," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 353-373, June.
    3. Chen, Haiqiang & Choi, Paul Moon Sub & Hong, Yongmiao, 2013. "How smooth is price discovery? Evidence from cross-listed stock trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 668-699.
    4. Chen, Shiyi & Chng, Michael T. & Liu, Qingfu, 2021. "The implied arbitrage mechanism in financial markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 468-483.
    5. TUSHAJ Arjin & SINAJ Valentina, 2012. "A Decomposition Of Stock Index Futures Mispricing And The Price Effect Of Index Arbitrage," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 184-196, August.
    6. Panayiotis Andreou & Yiannos Pierides, 2008. "Empirical investigation of stock index futures market efficiency: the case of the Athens Derivatives Exchange," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 211-223.
    7. Joseph K.W. Fung & Philip Yu, 2007. "Order Imbalance and the Dynamics of Index and Futures Prices," Working Papers 072007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Lai, Ya-Wen & Lin, Chiou-Fa & Tang, Mei-Ling, 2017. "Mispricing and trader positions in the S&P 500 index futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 250-265.
    9. Taylor, Nicholas, 2004. "Trading intensity, volatility, and arbitrage activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1137-1162, May.
    10. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, December.
    11. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Perera, Devmali, 2019. "Stock index futures arbitrage: Evidence from a meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 284-294.
    12. Laurent Deville & Carole Gresse & Béatrice de Séverac, 2014. "Direct and Indirect Effects of Index ETFs on Spot†Futures Pricing and Liquidity: Evidence from the CAC 40 Index," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 352-373, March.
    13. Tu, Anthony H. & Hsieh, Wen-Liang G. & Wu, Wei-Shao, 2016. "Market uncertainty, expected volatility and the mispricing of S&P 500 index futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 78-98.
    14. Tse, Yiuman, 2001. "Index arbitrage with heterogeneous investors: A smooth transition error correction analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1829-1855, October.
    15. Kapil Gupta & Balwinder Singh, 2009. "Information Memory and Pricing Efficiency of Futures Contracts," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 191-250, May.
    16. A. Tolga Ergun, 2009. "NYSE Rule 80A restrictions on index arbitrage and market linkage," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(20), pages 1675-1685.
    17. Garrett Ian & Taylor Nicholas, 2001. "Intraday and Interday Basis Dynamics: Evidence from the FTSE 100 Index Futures Market," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-22, July.
    18. Kapil Gupta & Balwinder Singh, 2007. "Investigating the Pricing Efficiency of Indian Equity Futures Market," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 32(4), pages 486-512, November.
    19. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Jakubowski, Jacek, 2008. "Stock index futures arbitrage in emerging markets: Polish evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 363-381.
    20. Joseph K.W. Fung, 2006. "Order Imbalance and the Pricing of Index Futures," Working Papers 132006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    21. Bertus, Mark & Godbey, Jonathan & Hinkelmann, Christoph & Mahar, James W., 2008. "Noise, equity prices, and hedging: A new approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 886-902, December.
    22. Nicholas Taylor, 2007. "A New Econometric Model of Index Arbitrage," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(1), pages 159-183, January.
    23. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7689 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Gurmeet Singh, 2017. "Estimating Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness in the NSE Index Futures," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(2), pages 108-131, December.

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