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Price discovery in spot and futures markets: A reconsideration

  • Theissen, Erik

We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage opportunities to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying transaction costs. We find that a) the futures market leads in the process of price discovery and that b) the presence of arbitrage opportunities has a strong impact on the dynamics of the price discovery process.

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Paper provided by University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR) in its series CFR Working Papers with number 09-17 [rev.].

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:0917r
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  1. Martens, M. & Kofman, P. & Vorst, T.C.F., 1995. "A Threshold Error Correction Model for Intraday Futures and Index Returns," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/95, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  2. Tse, Yiuman, 2001. "Index arbitrage with heterogeneous investors: A smooth transition error correction analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1829-1855, October.
  3. G. Geoffrey Booth & Raymond W. So & Yiuman Tse, 1999. "Price discovery in the German equity index derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 619-643, 09.
  4. Kempf, Alexander & Korn, Olaf, 1998. "Trading System and Market Integration," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 220-239, July.
  5. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
  6. Berkman, Henk & Brailsford, Tim & Frino, Alex, 2005. "A note on execution costs for stock index futures: Information versus liquidity effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 565-577, March.
  7. Erik Theissen, 2001. "Price Discovery in Floor and Screen Trading Systems," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse35_2001, University of Bonn, Germany.
  8. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
  9. Harris, Frederick H. deB. & McInish, Thomas H. & Wood, Robert A., 2002. "Common factor components versus information shares: a reply," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 341-348, July.
  10. Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr & Locke, Peter R & Yu, Wei, 1996. "Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the S&P 500 Futures and Cash," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 301-32.
  11. Jokivuolle, Esa, 1995. "Measuring True Stock Index Value in the Presence of Infrequent Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(03), pages 455-464, September.
  12. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Arbitrage in Stock Index Futures," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages S7-31, January.
  13. Yan, Bingcheng & Zivot, Eric, 2010. "A structural analysis of price discovery measures," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, February.
  14. Joel Hasbrouck, 2003. "Intraday Price Formation in U.S. Equity Index Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2375-2400, December.
  15. Thorsten Freihube & Erik Theissen, 2001. "An Index Is An Index Is An Index?," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 53(4), pages 295-320, October.
  16. Terrence Hendershott & Charles M. Jones, 2005. "Island Goes Dark: Transparency, Fragmentation, and Regulation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 743-793.
  17. de Jong, Frank, 2002. "Measures of contributions to price discovery: a comparison," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 323-327, July.
  18. Grunbichler Andreas & Longstaff Francis A. & Schwartz Eduardo S., 1994. "Electronic Screen Trading and the Transmission of Information: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 166-187, March.
  19. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  20. G. Geoffrey Booth & Ji-Chai Lin & Teppo Martikainen & Yiuman Tse, 2002. "Trading and Pricing in Upstairs and Downstairs Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1111-1135.
  21. Yiuman Tse & Paramita Bandyopadhyay & Yang-Pin Shen, 2006. "Intraday Price Discovery in the DJIA Index Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9-10), pages 1572-1585.
  22. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. " One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-99, September.
  23. Lehmann, Bruce N., 2002. "Some desiderata for the measurement of price discovery across markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 259-276, July.
  24. Pradeep K. Yadav & Peter F. Pope & Krishna Paudyal, 1994. "Threshold Autoregressive Modeling In Finance: The Price Differences Of Equivalent Assets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 205-221.
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