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Regime switching and cointegration tests of the efficiency of futures markets

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  • Ying‐Foon Chow

Abstract

Many researchers have found that spot and futures prices are not cointegrated in some commodity markets, or they are cointegrated but not with a cointegrating vector (1, −1). One interpretation is that disturbances to excess returns have a unit root persistence, which implies that spot and futures prices do not move together one‐for‐one in the long run. To provide an alternative explanation for this finding, this article proposes a regime switching model of spot prices that can be viewed in the same framework as Fama and French (1988). Based on this model, Monte Carlo experiments are performed to show that tests for cointegration and estimates of the cointegrating vector are likely to be biased when a sample contains infrequent changes in regime. Taking these shifts into account, the null hypothesis that spot and futures prices are cointegrated and move together one‐for‐one in the long run can no longer be rejected. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:871–901, 1998

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  • Ying‐Foon Chow, 1998. "Regime switching and cointegration tests of the efficiency of futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(8), pages 871-901, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:18:y:1998:i:8:p:871-901
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Lin, Hai & Premachandra, I.M., 2019. "Testing commodity futures market efficiency under time-varying risk premiums and heteroscedastic prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 92-112.
    2. Xuedong Wu & Jeffrey H. Dorfman & Berna Karali, 2018. "The impact of data frequency on market efficiency tests of commodity futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 696-714, June.
    3. Jerry Coakley & Jian Dollery & Neil Kellard, 2011. "Long memory and structural breaks in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(11), pages 1076-1113, November.
    4. Angelos Kanas, 2008. "Modeling regime transition in stock index futures markets and forecasting implications," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 649-669.
    5. Gilbert V. Nartea & Muhammad A. Cheema & Kenneth R. Szulczyk, 2017. "Searching for rational bubble footprints in the Singaporean and Indonesian stock markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(3), pages 529-552, July.

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