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The Impact of Data Frequency On Stationarity Tests Of Commodity Futures Prices

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  • Wu, Xuedong
  • Dorfman, Jeffrey H.
  • Karali, Berna

Abstract

We investigate the impacts of sampling frequency and model specification uncertainty on the outcome of unit root tests, commonly employed as market efficiency tests, using a new, robust Bayesian test on seven commodity futures prices at three different sample frequencies (daily, weekly, and monthly). Using Bayesian model averaging to account for different possible mean and error variance specifications, we show that sample frequency does affect the unit root test results: the higher the frequency, the higher the support for stationarity. We further show that not accounting for model specification uncertainty can produce unit root test results that are not robust.
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Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Xuedong & Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Karali, Berna, 2015. "The Impact of Data Frequency On Stationarity Tests Of Commodity Futures Prices," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205569, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea15:205569
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.205569
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2020. "Regulatory reform and market efficiency: The case of Indian agricultural commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Wu, Nan & Wen, Fenghua & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Marionettes behind co-movement of commodity prices: Roles of speculative and hedging activities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Alphonse Singbo & Dislène Sossou, 2024. "Asymmetric spot‐futures prices adjustments in Quebec grain markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 72(3), pages 347-363, September.

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