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Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models

  • Costas Milas

    (Department of Economics, City University, UK)

  • Jes�s Otero

    (Facultad de Econom�a, Universidad del Rosario, Colombia)

  • Theodore Panagiotidis

    (Department of Economics, Loughborough University, UK)

This paper estimates linear and non-linear error correction models for the spot prices of four different coffee types. In line with economic priors, we find some evidence that when prices are too high, they move back to equilibrium more slowly than when they are too low. This may reflect the fact that, in the short run, it is easier for countries to restrict the supply of coffee in order to raise prices, rather than increase supply in order to reduce them. Further, there is some evidence that adjustment is faster when deviations from the equilibrium level get larger. Our forecasting analysis suggests that asymmetric and polynomial error correction models offer weak evidence of improved forecasting performance relative to the random walk model. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.245
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 277-288

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:9:y:2004:i:3:p:277-288
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  1. Ramsey James B., 1996. "If Nonlinear Models Cannot Forecast, What Use Are They?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-24, July.
  2. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  4. Costas Milas & Jesus Otero, 2002. "Smooth transition vector error correction models for the spot prices of coffee," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(14), pages 925-928.
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  8. Escribano, Alvaro & Pfann, Gerard A., 1998. "Non-linear error correction, asymmetric adjustment and cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 197-216, April.
  9. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  10. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
  11. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
  12. Otero, J.G. & Milas, C., 1998. "Modeling The Behaviour of the Spot Prices of Various Types of Coffee," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 524, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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  15. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521770415 is not listed on IDEAS
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