Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models
This paper estimates linear and non-linear error correction models for the spot prices of four different coffee types. In line with economic priors, we find some evidence that when prices are too high, they move back to equilibrium more slowly than when they are too low. This may reflect the fact that, in the short run, it is easier for countries to restrict the supply of coffee in order to raise prices, rather than increase supply in order to reduce them. Further, there is some evidence that adjustment is faster when deviations from the equilibrium level get larger. Our forecasting analysis suggests that asymmetric and polynomial error correction models offer weak evidence of improved forecasting performance relative to the random walk model. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 9 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://jws-edcv.wiley.com/jcatalog/JournalsCatalogOrder/JournalOrder?PRINT_ISSN=1076-9307|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Escribano, Alvaro & Pfann, Gerard A., 1998.
"Non-linear error correction, asymmetric adjustment and cointegration,"
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 197-216, April.
- Pfann, Gerard & Escribano, Álvaro, 1991. "Nonlinear error correction, asymmetric adjusment and cointegration," UC3M Working papers. Economics 2807, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
- Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mira, Santiago & Escribano, Álvaro, 1997. "Nonlinear error correction models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6206, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
- Alvaro Escribano & Santiago Mira, 2001. "Nonlinear error correction models," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2001-03, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages 145-159, Supplemen.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, August.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, August.
- Otero, J.G. & Milas, C., 1998. "Modeling The Behaviour of the Spot Prices of Various Types of Coffee," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 524, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
- Costas Milas & Jesus Otero, 2002. "Smooth transition vector error correction models for the spot prices of coffee," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(14), pages 925-928.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
- Francis X. Diebold & James M. Nason, 1989. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-484, November.
- Ramsey James B., 1996. "If Nonlinear Models Cannot Forecast, What Use Are They?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-24, July.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)