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The Effect of Incomes Policies on Inflation in Bulgaria and Poland

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  • Tihomir Enev
  • Kenneth Koford

Abstract

Transition countries, and many other countries with incomplete markets, have faced long periods with both high inflation and unemployment. Policies to reduce inflation without high unemployment include incomes policies, which were widely employed in transition countries. This paper studies the effects of incomes policies on inflation in Bulgaria and Poland in 1990-1993. The actual policies, which were complex and changing, are examined. The policies do not appear well-designed in a technical sense to reduce inflation. A time-series analysis is made which includes standard determinants of inflation including past inflation, wage increases, exchange rate changes, and monetary changes, plus a dummy for incomes policies. The regressions are fairly successful in fitting standard factors that should influence inflation, particularly the exchange rate and unemployment in Bulgaria and wages and unemployment in Poland. They find a fairly substantial inflation-reducing effect from the Bulgarian policy but no significant results from the Polish policy. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Suggested Citation

  • Tihomir Enev & Kenneth Koford, 2000. "The Effect of Incomes Policies on Inflation in Bulgaria and Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 141-169, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:33:y:2000:i:3:p:141-169
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1003886617116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics : Differences and common themes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 719-754, May.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    3. Golinelli, Roberto & Orsi, Renzo, 1998. "Exchange Rate, Inflation and Unemployment in East European Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 29-55.
    4. Zadrozny, Peter A, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of Polish Inflation Dynamics with Learning about Rational Expectations," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2-3), pages 221-238.
    5. Welfe, Aleksander, 1996. "The Price-Wage Inflationary Spiral in Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 33-50.
    6. Seidman, Laurence S, 1979. "The Role of a Tax-Based Incomes Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 202-206, May.
    7. Osiewalski, Jacek & Welfe, Aleksander, 1997. "The Price-Wage Mechanism in Poland: An Endogenous Switching Model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2-3), pages 205-220.
    8. Kenneth J. Koford & Jeffrey B. Miller & David C. Colander, 1993. "Application of Market Anti-inflation Plans in the Transition to a Market Economy," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 379-393, Summer.
    9. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1992. "The Economic Transformation of Eastern Europe: The Case of Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 5-19.
    10. Peter Zadrozny, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of Polish Inflation Dynamics with Learning about Rational Expectations," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 221-238, May.
    11. Brian Pinto & Marek Belka & Stefan Krajewski, 1993. "Transforming State Enterprises in Poland: Evidence on Adjustment by Manufacturing Firms," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 213-270.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Greece and the Troika – Lessons from International Best Practice Cases of Successful Price (and Wage) Adjustment," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 14(2), pages 177-195, December.

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    Keywords

    incomes policies; transition; Bulgaria; Poland;

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