An Empirical Small Labor Market Model for the Czech Economy
An empirical small labor market model for the Czech Republic is estimated in the state-space framework. Its purpose is joint modeling of the labor force, employment, wages, hours worked, output, and the GDP deflator in a consistent “structural” framework suitable for short-run forecasting. The model entails, in the long run, five driving forces: a trend labor force component, a trend labor productivity component, a long-run inflation rate, an unemployment trend, and a trend hours worked component. In the short run, the dynamics are governed by a VAR model. The model aims at describing co-movements in the labor-market variables, provides a model-based decomposition into the trend and cyclical components of the underlying series, and outperforms unrestricted VARs in forecasting. The paper also describes the second moments of labor market data at various frequencies and discusses to what extent these properties can be replicated by the data.
Volume (Year): 61 (2011)
Issue (Month): 5 (November)
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- Jan Babecky & Kamil Dybczak & Kamil Galuscak, 2008. "Survey on Wage and Price Formation of Czech Firms," Working Papers 2008/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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- Laurence M. Ball, 2009. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Thomas B. King, 2005. "Labor productivity and job-market flows: trends, cycles, and correlations," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Farmer, Roger, 2010. "Expectations, Employment and Prices," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195397901, December.
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