An Empirical Small Labor Market Model for the Czech Economy
An empirical small labor market model for the Czech Republic is estimated in the state-space framework. Its purpose is joint modeling of the labor force, employment, wages, hours worked, output, and the GDP deflator in a consistent “structural” framework suitable for short-run forecasting. The model entails, in the long run, five driving forces: a trend labor force component, a trend labor productivity component, a long-run inflation rate, an unemployment trend, and a trend hours worked component. In the short run, the dynamics are governed by a VAR model. The model aims at describing co-movements in the labor-market variables, provides a model-based decomposition into the trend and cyclical components of the underlying series, and outperforms unrestricted VARs in forecasting. The paper also describes the second moments of labor market data at various frequencies and discusses to what extent these properties can be replicated by the data.
Volume (Year): 61 (2011)
Issue (Month): 5 (November)
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- Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2009. "Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 1135, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2010.
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- Kevin Clinton & Marianne Johnson & Jaromir Benes & Douglas Laxton & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Structural Models in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 10/56, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrle, Michal, 2008. "The Role of Trends and Detrending in DSGE Models," MPRA Paper 13289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Thomas B. King, 2005. "Labor productivity and job-market flows: trends, cycles, and correlations," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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- Farmer, Roger, 2010. "Expectations, Employment and Prices," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195397901, March.
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