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A Hodrick–Prescott filter with automatically selected breaks

Author

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  • Maranzano, Paolo
  • Pelagatti, Matteo

Abstract

The Hodrick–Prescott filter is a popular tool in macroeconomics for decomposing a time series into a smooth trend and a business cycle component. The last few years have witnessed global events, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, that have had abrupt structural impacts on many economic time series. Moreover, new regulations and policy changes generally lead to similar behaviours. Thus, those events should be absorbed by the trend component of the trend-cycle decomposition, but the Hodrick–Prescott filter does not allow for breaks. We propose a modification of the Hodrick–Prescott filter that contemplates breaks and automatically selects the time points in which the breaks occur. We provide efficient implementation of the new filter in an R package. We use our new filter to assess what Italian labour market reforms impacted employment in different age groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Maranzano, Paolo & Pelagatti, Matteo, 2025. "A Hodrick–Prescott filter with automatically selected breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:150:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325001270
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107132
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trend; State–space form; Unobserved component model; Structural change; LASSO; Business cycle; Employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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