The Italian financial cycle: 1861-2011
In this paper, we investigate the main features of the Italian financial cycle, extracted by means of a structural trend-cycle decomposition of the credit-to-GDP ratio, using annual observations from 1861 to 2011. In order to draw conclusions based on solid historical data, we provide a thorough reconstruction of the key balance sheet time series of Italian banks, considering all the main assets and liabilities over the last 150 years. We come to three main conclusions. First, while there was close correlation between loans and deposits (relative to GDP) until the mid-1970s, over the last 30 years, this link became more tenuous and the volume of loans has increased in relation to deposits. The banks covered this “funding gap” mainly by issuing new debt securities. Second, the Italian financial cycle has a much longer duration than traditional business cycles. Third, taking into account the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its trend, an acceleration of credit preceded or accompanied a banking crisis in 8 out of the 12 episodes listed by Reinhart and Rogoff (This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009). A Logit regression confirms a positive association between the probability of a banking crisis and a previous acceleration of the credit-to-GDP gap. However, there were also periods -such as the early 1970s- in which the growth of the credit-to-GDP ratio was not followed by a banking crisis.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 8 (2014)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.cliometrie.org|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"Varieties of Crises and Their Dates,"
Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
Princeton University Press.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8973.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
- Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
- Lisa Sella & Roberto Marchionatti, 2012. "On the cyclical variability of economic growth in Italy, 1881–1913: a critical note," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(3), pages 307-328, October.
- Riccardo De Bonis & Fabio Farabullini & Miria Rocchelli & Alessandra Salvio, 2012. "A Quantitative Look at the Italian Banking System: Evidence from a New Dataset since 1861," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 26, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Riccardo De Bonis & Fabio Farabullini & Miria Rocchelli & Alessandra Salvio & Andrea Silvestrini, 2013. "A quantitative look at the Italian banking system: evidence from a new dataset since 1861," Working Papers 9, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
- Gigliobianco Alfredo & Giordano Claire, 2012. "Does Economic Theory Matter in Shaping Banking Regulation? A Case-study of Italy (1861-1936)," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-78, September.
- Alfredo Gigliobianco & Claire Giordano, 2010. "Economic Theory and Banking Regulation: The Italian Case (1861-1930s)," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 5, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- A'Hearn, Brian & Woitek, Ulrich, 2001. "More international evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 321-346, April.
- Sbrana, Giacomo, 2013. "The exact linkage between the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 311-316.
- Giacomo Sbrana, 2010. "The exact linkage between the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions," Working Papers 10-09, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
- Giacomo Sbrana, 2013. "The exact linkage between the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions," Post-Print hal-00779344, HAL.
- Giacomo Sbrana & Andrea Silvestrini, 2012. "Temporal aggregation of cyclical models with business cycle applications," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 21(1), pages 93-107, March.
- Giacomo Sbrana & Andrea Silvestrini, 2012. "Temporal aggregation of cyclical models with business cycle applications," Post-Print hal-00809247, HAL.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, June.
- Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
- Della Torre Giuseppe & Coccìa Mimì & De Leonardis Valentina & Schisani M. Carmela, 2008. "Growth of the Italian Financial System after Political Unification, 1861-1914: Financial Deepening and/or Statistical and Methodological Biases?," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 135-174.
- Ciccarelli, Carlo & Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2007. "Business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-1913: The new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 432-451, July.
- Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
- Alberto Baffigi & Maria Elena Bontempi & Roberto Golinelli, 2013. "Potential Output, Output Gap, and Inflation in Italy in the Long Term (1861-2010): An Econometric Analysis," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 29, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters,in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- David Greasley & Jakob B. Madsen, 2013. "The housing slump and the great depression in the USA," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 7(1), pages 15-35, January.
- Giacomo Sbrana, 2011. "Structural time series models and aggregation: some analytical results," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 315-316, 05.
- Terence C. Mills, 2009. "Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series: historical perspective and future developments," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(3), pages 221-244, October.
- Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
- Fohlin, Caroline, 1999. "Capital mobilisation and utilisation in latecomer economies: Germany and Italy compared," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 139-174, August.
- Felice, Emanuele & Carreras, Albert, 2012. "When did modernization begin? Italy's industrial growth reconsidered in light of new value-added series, 1911–1951," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 443-460.
- Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2005. "The growth of the Italian economy, 1861 1913: Preliminary second-generation estimates," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 273-312, December.
- Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:8:y:2014:i:3:p:301-334. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.