IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Output-Employment Relationship across Sectors: A Long- versus Short-Run Perspective

  • Afsin Sahin

    ()

    (Department of Banking, School of Banking and Insurance, Gazi University)

  • Aysit Tansel

    ()

    (Cornell University, Middle East Technical University, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), and Economic Research Forum (ERF))

  • M. Hakan Berument

    ()

    (Bilkent University, Department of Economics)

This paper investigates the nature of the output-employment relationship by using the Turkish quarterly data for the period from 1988 to 2008. Even if we fail to find a long-run relationship between aggregate output and total employment, there are long-run relationships for the aggregate output with non-agricultural employment and sectoral employment levels for seven of nine sectors that we consider. However, a further investigation for the output and employment relationship within a short-run perspective do not reveal statistically significant relationships for either total employment, or non-agriculture employment or the eight out of the nine sectors that we consider. Thus, it seems that sustainable growth is an essential economic agenda for employment generation concerning the sectors and that there is a longrun link but weak short run link with demand.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1311.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum in its series Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers with number 1311.

as
in new window

Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1311
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Rumelifeneri Yolu, Sarıyer, 34450 İstanbul

Phone: (90+212)-338-1302
Fax: (90+212)-338-1393
Web page: http://erf.ku.edu.tr
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Mark J. Holmes & Brian Silverstone, 2005. "Okun's Law, Asymmetries and Jobless Recoveries in the United States: A Markov-Switching Approach," Working Papers in Economics 05/06, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  2. H. Bhorat & J. Hodge, 1999. "Decomposing Shifts in Labour Demand in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 67(3), pages 155-168, 09.
  3. Lai Yew Wah, 1997. "Employment effects of output and technological progress in Malaysian manufacturing," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 411-420.
  4. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2004. "Economic Performance and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Economy - Turkey," Working Papers 0409, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2004.
  5. Dong He & Zhiwei Zhang & Wenlang, 2009. "How Large Will Be the Effect of China's Fiscal-Stimulus Package on Output and Employment?," Working Papers 0905, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  6. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 335-356, June.
  7. Badi H. Baltagi & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Timur Hulagu, 2013. "How different are the wage curves for formal and informal workers? Evidence from Turkey," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(2), pages 271-283, 06.
  8. M. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2009. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(3), pages 21-34, May.
  9. Deepankar Basu & Duncan K. Foley, 2013. "Dynamics of output and employment in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(5), pages 1077-1106.
  10. Christian Weber, 1997. "The paper-bill spread and Blanchard's version of Okun's law," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(7), pages 437-440.
  11. F. P. R. Brechling, 1965. "The Relationship between Output and Employment in British Manufacturing Industries," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 187-216.
  12. Hamada, Koichi & Kurosaka, Yoshio, 1984. "The relationship between production and unemployment in Japan : Okun's law in comparative perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 71-94, June.
  13. Alfons Palangkaraya & Jongsay Yong, 2011. "Trade Liberalisation, Exit, and Output and Employment Adjustments of Australian Manufacturing Establishments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 1-22, 01.
  14. Ghysels, E. & Perron, P., 1990. "The Effect Of Seasonal Adjustment Filters On Tests For A Unit Root," Papers 355, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  16. Madden, G M & Tuckwell, R H, 1975. "The Output-Employment Relationship in Australian Industry," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 51(135), pages 321-27, September.
  17. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
  18. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
  19. Erica L. Groshen & Simon M. Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).
  20. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  21. Costas Milas, 2000. "Employment, output and political business cycle effects in the Greek non-tradable sector," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 123-133.
  22. Michael Chletsos & Christos Kollias, 1997. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Employment Levels in Greece: A Causal Analysis," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 11(3), pages 437-448, November.
  23. Khemraj, Tarron & Madrick, Jeff & Semmler, Willi, 2006. "Okun's Law and Jobless Growth," MPRA Paper 54881, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. N. J. Ireland & D. J. Smyth, 1970. "The Specification of Short-Run Employment Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(2), pages 281-285.
  25. Barbara Sawtelle, 2007. "Analyzing the Link Between Real GDP and Employment: An Industry Sector Approach," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(4), pages 46-54, October.
  26. Jaakko Pehkonen, 2000. "Employment, unemployment and output growth in booms and recessions: time series evidence from Finland, 1970-1996," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 885-900.
  27. Shigeyuki Hamori & Akira Tokihisa, 2001. "Seasonal cointegration and the money demand function: some evidence from Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 305-310.
  28. N. J. Ireland & D. J. Smyth, 1970. "The Specification of Short-Run Employment Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(2), pages 281-285.
  29. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  30. Verme, Paolo, 2006. "Constraints to growth and job creation in low-income Commonwealth of Independent States countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3893, The World Bank.
  31. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, July.
  32. R. A. Hart & T. Sharot, 1978. "The Short-run Demand for Workers and Hours: A Recursive Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 299-309.
  33. Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-36, May.
  34. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-64, December.
  35. M. Upender, 2011. "Differential Output Elasticity Of Employment During Post-Economic Reform Period In The Indian Economy," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 56(02), pages 189-202.
  36. Özlem Onaran & Nursel Aydiner-Avsar, 2006. "The controversy over employment policy: Low labor costs and openness, or demand policy? A sectoral analysis for Turkey," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp097, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  37. Morrison, C. J. & Berndt, E. R., 1981. "Short-run labor productivity in a dynamic model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 339-365, August.
  38. Villaverde, José & Maza, Adolfo, 2009. "The robustness of Okun's law in Spain, 1980-2004: Regional evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 289-297.
  39. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2008. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 34-49, 03.
  40. Martin Neil Baily & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2004. "What Happened to the Great U.S. Job Machine? The Role of Trade and Electronic Offshoring," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 211-284.
  41. Attfield, Clifford L. F. & Silverstone, Brian, 1998. "Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 625-637, July.
  42. R. A. Hart & T. Sharot, 1978. "The Short-run Demand for Workers and Hours: A Recursive Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 299-309.
  43. Bell, David N F, 1981. "Regional Output: Employment and Unemployment Fluctuations," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 42-60, March.
  44. Kaufman, Roger T., 1988. "An international comparison of Okun's laws," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 182-203, June.
  45. Bhalotra, Sonia R, 1998. "The Puzzle of Jobless Growth in Indian Manufacturing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(1), pages 5-32, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1311. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sumru Oz)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.