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Economic Performance and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Economy - Turkey

  • Hakan Berument

    (Department of Economics, Bilkent University)

  • Nukhet Dogan

    (Department of Econometrics, Gazi University)

  • Aysit Tansel

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University)

This article examines whether various macroeconomic policy shocks have different effects on the overall unemployment rate and the unemployment rate by different levels of education in Turkey. These effects are assessed for total, male and female unemployment rates separately. To examine the relationship, a quarterly VAR model with a recursive order is employed to estimate the effects of real GDP, price, exchange rate, interbank interest rate, money supply and unemployment for the period from 1988:01 to 2003:04. Main findings indicate that a positive income shock reduces total unemployment while positive exchange rate and interbank interest rate innovations both increase the unemployment rate during the initial periods. The responses of high school educated unemployment rate to five macroeconomic variable shocks are different than the response of other educational unemployment rates. Furthermore, the overall results across gender are similar.

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Paper provided by Economic Research Forum in its series Working Papers with number 0409.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2004
Date of revision: Apr 2004
Publication status: Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)
Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:0409
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  1. Hakan Berument, 2005. "Measuring Monetary Policy for A Small Open Economy : Turkey," Working Papers 0509, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
  2. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1994. "Macroeconomic Adjustment with Segmented Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 4769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hakan Berument, 2005. "Measuring Monetary Policy for A Small Open Economy : Turkey," Working Papers 0509, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
  4. Algan, Yann, 2002. "How well does the aggregate demand-aggregate supply framework explain unemployment fluctuations? A France-United States comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-177, January.
  5. Daitoh, Ichiroh, 2003. "Financial liberalization, urban unemployment and welfare: some implications of the artificial low interest rate and the high wage rate policies in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 163-179, October.
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