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Macroeconomic Variables and Unemployment: The Case of Turkey

  • Taylan Taner Dogan

    (Kirikkale University, Department of Economics, Kirikkale, Turkey)

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    This study investigates the response of unemployment to selective macroeconomics shocks for the period of 2000:Q1-2010:Q1. It finds that positive shocks to growth, growth in export and inflation reduce unemployment. On the other hand, shocks to exchange rate, interbank interest rate and money supply increase unemployment. The results are consistent with Phillips curve and Okun’s Law suggestion. Namely, negative relationship between output and unemployment and positive relationship between unemployment and inflation are found. Also, this study finds consistent results with earlier literature.

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    Article provided by Econjournals in its journal International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues.

    Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 71-78

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    Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2012-01-8
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econjournals.com

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    1. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
    2. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2008. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 429, Economic Research Forum, revised Aug 2008.
    3. Ravn, Morten O & Simonelli, Saverio, 2007. "Labour Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 6409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    5. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    7. James L. Butkiewicz & Zeliha Ozdogan, 2013. "Financial crisis, monetary policy reform and the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey," Working Papers 13-08, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    8. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2004. "Economic Performance and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Economy - Turkey," Working Papers 0409, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2004.
    9. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    10. Dogrul, H. Günsel & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Relationship between oil prices, interest rate, and unemployment: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1523-1528, November.
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