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Macroeconomic Variables and Unemployment: The Case of Turkey

Author

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  • Taylan Taner Dogan

    (Kirikkale University, Department of Economics, Kirikkale, Turkey)

Abstract

This study investigates the response of unemployment to selective macroeconomics shocks for the period of 2000:Q1-2010:Q1. It finds that positive shocks to growth, growth in export and inflation reduce unemployment. On the other hand, shocks to exchange rate, interbank interest rate and money supply increase unemployment. The results are consistent with Phillips curve and Okun’s Law suggestion. Namely, negative relationship between output and unemployment and positive relationship between unemployment and inflation are found. Also, this study finds consistent results with earlier literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylan Taner Dogan, 2012. "Macroeconomic Variables and Unemployment: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(1), pages 71-78.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2012-01-8
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morten O. Ravn & Saverio Simonelli, 2008. "Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, pages 743-777.
    2. M. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2009. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 21-34.
    3. repec:dlw:wpaper:09-04. is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    5. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2004. "Economic Performance and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Economy - Turkey," Working Papers 0409, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Aug 2004.
    6. Dogrul, H. Günsel & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Relationship between oil prices, interest rate, and unemployment: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1523-1528, November.
    7. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    8. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    9. James L. Butkiewicz & Zeliha Ozdogan, 2013. "Financial crisis, monetary policy reform and the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey," Working Papers 13-08, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    11. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic variables; Vector Autoregressive Model; Impulse-response function;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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