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Economic Performance and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Economy - Turkey

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  • Berument, Hakan

    (Bilkent University)

  • Dogan, Nukhet

    (Gazi University)

  • Tansel, Aysit

    (Middle East Technical University)

Abstract

This article examines whether various macroeconomic policy shocks have different effects on overall unemployment rate and the unemployment rate by different levels of education in Turkey. These effects are assessed for total, male and female unemployment rates separately. To examine the relationship, a quarterly VAR model with a recursive order is employed to estimate the effects of real GDP, price, exchange rate, interbank interest rate, money supply and unemployment for the period from 1988:01 to 2003:04. Main findings indicate that a positive income shock reduces total unemployment while positive exchange rate and interbank interest rate innovations both increase the unemployment rate during the initial periods. The responses of high school educated unemployment rate to five macroeconomic variable shocks are different than the response of other educational unemployment rates. Furthermore, the overall results across gender are similar.

Suggested Citation

  • Berument, Hakan & Dogan, Nukhet & Tansel, Aysit, 2005. "Economic Performance and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Economy - Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 1614, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1614
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    1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    2. Algan, Yann, 2002. "How well does the aggregate demand-aggregate supply framework explain unemployment fluctuations? A France-United States comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-177, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ceyhun ELGİN & Tolga Umut KUZUBAŞ, 2012. "Wage-Productivity Gap in Turkish Manufacturing Sector," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(316), pages 09-31.
    2. M. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2009. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 21-34, May.
    3. M. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2009. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 21-34, May.
    4. Kia, Amir, 2006. "Deficits, debt financing, monetary policy and inflation in developing countries: Internal or external factors?: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 879-903, November.
    5. Afşin Şahin & Aysit Tansel & M. Hakan Berument, 2015. "Output–Employment Relationship Across Sectors: A Long- Versus Short-Run Perspective," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 265-288, July.
    6. David Umoru & Moses A. Erhi, 2017. "St. Louis Model for Macroeconomic Policy Determination in Relation to Employment Generation in a Developing Economy: Some Simulation Results," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 3(3), pages 24-32, September.
    7. Afşin Şahin & Aysit Tansel & M. Hakan Berument, 2015. "Output–Employment Relationship Across Sectors: A Long- Versus Short-Run Perspective," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 265-288, July.
    8. Yıldırım Mustafa Ozan & Yıldırım Ahmet Eren, 2017. "The Influence of Consumption and Investment on Unemployment in Turkey: A Svar Approach," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 96(1), pages 74-92, January.
    9. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2017. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Vulnerability to Oil Price Shock as against US Economy Shock?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 544-550.
    10. Cioca Ionela Cornelia, 2013. "Analysis Of Correlation Between The Unemployment Rate And Gross Domestic Product In The European Union," Polish Journal of Management Studies, Czestochowa Technical University, Department of Management, vol. 7(1), pages 71-78, June.
    11. Taylan Taner Dogan, 2012. "Macroeconomic Variables and Unemployment: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(1), pages 71-78.
    12. Malik Shahzad Shabbir, Aniqa Zeb, 2019. "Determinants of Economic Stability through Female Unemployment: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 4(1), pages 19-30, March.
    13. Hyeon-Seung Huh, 2005. "A simple test of exogeneity for recursively structured VAR models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(20), pages 2307-2313.
    14. Liyana, Anis & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Does unemployment rate lead GDP growth or the other way around ? Malaysia’s case," MPRA Paper 102459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kenny S, Victoria, 2019. "A causal relationship between unemployment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 93133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Rasaki, Mutiu Gbade & Malikane, Christopher, 2015. "Macroeconomic shocks and fluctuations in African economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 675-696.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; economic performance and vector autoregressive regression;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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