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Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations

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  • Alexius, Annika

    () (Uppsala University)

  • Holmlund, Bertil

    () (Uppsala University)

Abstract

A widely spread belief among economists is that monetary policy has relatively short-lived effects on real variables such as unemployment. Previous studies indicate that monetary policy affects the output gap only at business cycle frequencies, but the effects on unemployment may well be more persistent in countries with highly regulated labor markets. We study the Swedish experience of unemployment and monetary policy. Using a structural VAR we find that around 30 percent of the fluctuations in unemployment are caused by shocks to monetary policy. The effects are also quite persistent. In the preferred model, almost 30 percent of the maximum effect of a shock still remains after ten years.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexius, Annika & Holmlund, Bertil, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations," IZA Discussion Papers 2933, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2933
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2009. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 21-34, May.
    2. Islas-Camargo, Alejandro & Cortez, Willy W., 2011. "How relevant is monetary policy to explain Mexican unemployment fluctuations?," MPRA Paper 30027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ohlsson, Henry, 2011. "The legacy of the Swedish gift and inheritance tax, 1884–2004," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 539-569, December.
    4. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    5. Augustine C Osigwe & Kenneth O Ahamba, 2016. "Macroeconomic conditions and unemployment in Nigeria," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(6), pages 21-28, December.
    6. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2012. "Constrained discretion in Sweden," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 33-44.
    7. M. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2009. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(3), pages 21-34, May.
    8. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Monetary policy and European unemployment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 94-108, Spring.
    9. repec:khe:scajes:v:3:y:2017:i:3:p:24-32 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6913 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Zan Yang & Shuping Wu & Yanhao Shen, 2017. "Monetary Policy, House Prices, and Consumption in China: A National and Regional Study," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 20(1), pages 23-49.
    12. Nordmeier, Daniela & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Patterns of unemployment dynamics in Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201302, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    13. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Nicht zu früh bremsen! - Der Einfluss der Geldpolitik auf die langfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland und den USA-," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp09003, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    14. Nordmeier, Daniela & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Conditional Patterns of Unemployment Dynamics in Germany," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79958, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural VAR; monetary policy; unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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