IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v20n012017p23-49.html

Monetary Policy, House Prices, and Consumption in China: A National and Regional Study

Author

Listed:
  • Zan Yang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Shuping Wu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Yanhao Shen

    (Tsinghua University)

Abstract

This paper studies the relationships among monetary policy, house prices, and consumption in China from both national and regional perspectives. Using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model and a counterfactual simulation method, we find that monetary policy has a significant effect on consumption but with a regional pattern, in terms of the magnitude and the housing wealth channel. It is found that in the middle southern and the western cities, the monetary policy has strong effects on consumption while the house prices have minimal contribution to the monetary policy transmission to household consumption. By contrast, in the Tier-1 and the eastern cities, house prices play a more important role in monetary policy transmission; even household consumption is less sensitive to monetary policy changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Zan Yang & Shuping Wu & Yanhao Shen, 2017. "Monetary Policy, House Prices, and Consumption in China: A National and Regional Study," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 23-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:20:n:01:2017:p:23-49
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gssinst.org/irer/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/v20n1-monetary-policy-house-prices-and-consumption-in-china.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
    2. Koivu, Tuuli, 2012. "Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 307-325.
    3. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-589, August.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    5. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
    6. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(3), pages 509-544, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Berna AK BÝNGÜL, 2019. "The effects of monetary policy on housing prices," Turkish Economic Review, EconSciences Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 241-249, September.
    2. Wilhelmsson, Mats, 2020. "What role does the housing market play for the transmission mechanism?," Working Paper Series 20/5, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    3. Mats Wilhelmsson, 2020. "What Role Does the Housing Market Play for the Macroeconomic Transmission Mechanism?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, June.
    4. Yu, Jian & Shi, Xunpeng & Cheong, Tsun Se, 2021. "Distribution dynamics of China's household consumption upgrading," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 193-203.
    5. Hu, Zhining, 2022. "Six types of government policies and housing prices in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. repec:ire:issued:v:26:n:03:2023:p:420-462 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Akbobek Akhmedyarova, 2023. "Housing Market Dynamics in Kazakhstan: An Estimated DSGE Model," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(3), pages 422-464.
    8. Tan, Zhengxun & Tang, Qianqian & Meng, Juan, 2022. "The effect of monetary policy on China’s housing prices before and after 2017: A dynamic analysis in DSGE model," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.
    2. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Henri L. F. Groot & Piet Rietveld & Peter Nijkamp, 2014. "The Regional Impact of Monetary Policy in Indonesia," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 240-262, June.
    3. Zan Yang & Ying Fan & Liqing Zhao, 2018. "A Reexamination of Housing Price and Household Consumption in China: The Dual Role of Housing Consumption and Housing Investment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 472-499, April.
    4. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Nijkamp, 2010. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Activity - Evidence from a Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-043/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2701-2718.
    6. Ridhwan, M.M. & Nijkamp, P. & Rietveld, P., 2008. "Regional development and monetary policy : a review of the role of monetary unions, capital mobility and locational effects," Serie Research Memoranda 0007, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    7. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 1999. "Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis," Economics Working Papers 446, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    8. Ageliki Anagnostou & Stephanos Papadamou, 2012. "The effects of Monetary Policy shocks across the Greek Regions," ERSA conference papers ersa12p507, European Regional Science Association.
    9. John N. Muellbauer, 2007. "Housing, credit and consumer expenditure," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267-334.
    10. Inoue, Tomoo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2008. "Were there structural breaks in the effects of Japanese monetary policy? Re-evaluating policy effects of the lost decade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 320-342, September.
    11. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    12. Sterken, Elmer, 2003. "Monetary transmission, asset prices, and the business cycle indicator in Germany," CCSO Working Papers 200315, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    13. de Groot, Oliver & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Nikalexi, Katerina, 2020. "Monetary policy and regional inequality," Working Paper Series 2385, European Central Bank.
    14. Stefanos Papadamou & Vaggelis Arvanitis & Costas Siriopoulos, 2014. "A Bank Lending Channel that is Working via Housing or via Consumer Loans? Evidence from Europe," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 15-34.
    15. Setzer, Ralph & van den Noord, Paul & Wolff, Guntram B., 2011. "Heterogeneity in money holdings across euro area countries: The role of housing," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 764-780.
    16. Massimo GIULIODORI, 2002. "Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of House Prices Across European Countries," Working Papers 164, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    17. Elmer Sterken, 2005. "The Role of the Ifo Business Climate Indicator and Asset Prices in German Monetary Policy," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 173-201, Springer.
    18. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    19. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
    20. Michal Rubaszek & David Stenvall & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2025. "Rental market structure and housing dynamics: An interacted panel VAR investigation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 781-802, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:20:n:01:2017:p:23-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.gssinst.org/gssinst/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.