IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/429.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Hakan Berument

    (Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Turkey)

  • Nukhet Dogan
  • Aysit Tansel

Abstract

This paper investigates how macroeconomic policy shocks in Turkey affect the total unemployment and provides evidence on the differential responses of the unemployment by sectors of economic activity. Our paper extends the previous work in two respects. First, we consider not only the response of total unemployment but also the response of unemployment by sectors of economic activity. Second, we consider not only the effect of monetary policy shocks, but also the effects of several other macroeconomic shocks. The Turkish quarterly data used covers the period 1988:01 to 2004:04. A VAR model with a recursive order is employed to estimate the effects of shocks in real GDP, price, exchange rate, interbank interest rate, money supply and own sectoral unemployment on unemployment in various sectors of economic activity. The results indicate that a positive income shock is followed by a decrease in unemployment in all economic activity groups during the initial periods except for unemployment in the Electricity sector and the Community Services sector. A positive money shock decreases unemployment in Mining, Manufacturing, Construction, Wholesale- Retail Trade, Transportation and Finance-Insurance sectors. Opposite results are obtained with interbank interest rate shocks. Even when they are not statistically significant, positive interbank interest rate shocks increase unemployment in all economic activities at the initial levels but drive down unemployment in the Agriculture and Community Services sectors at the initial level. Moreover, a positive price shock increases unemployment in all economic sectors in the long run except for Mining and Community Services. Thus, unemployment in different sectors of economic activity responds differently to various macroeconomic policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2008. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 429, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:429
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/429.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://bit.ly/2oPrxF4
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Morten O. Ravn & Saverio Simonelli, 2007. "Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(4), pages 743-777, December.
    3. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    4. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2001. "Assessing simple policy rules: A view from a complete macroeconomic model," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q4), pages 35-58.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2004. "Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 85-90, May.
    6. Hakan Berument, 2003. "Public Sector Pricing Behavior and Inflation Risk Premium in Turkey," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 68-78, January.
    7. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    8. Robert G. King, 1991. "Money and business cycles," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    9. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    10. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1995. "Liquidity Effects, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1113-1136, November.
    11. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2000. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Donald Freeman, 2000. "Regional tests of Okun's law," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 6(3), pages 557-570, August.
    13. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1997. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: A comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1201-1249, June.
    14. Bradley T. Ewing & William Levernier & Farooq Malik, 2002. "The Differential Effects of Output Shocks on Unemployment Rates by Race and Gender," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 584-599, January.
    15. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-748, September.
    16. Holmlund, Bertil & Alexius, Annika, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-25.
    17. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1995. "Forecasting in Cointegration Systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 127-146, April-Jun.
    18. Algan, Yann, 2002. "How well does the aggregate demand-aggregate supply framework explain unemployment fluctuations? A France-United States comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-177, January.
    19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1991. "Identification and the Liquidity Effect of a Monetary Policy Shock," NBER Working Papers 3920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2004. "Economic Performance and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Economy - Turkey," Working Papers 0409, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Aug 2004.
    21. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    22. Glen, J.D., 1992. "Private Sector Electricity in Developing Countries: Supply and Demand," Papers 15, World Bank - International Finance Corporation.
    23. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    24. R. Paci & F. Pigliaru & M. Pugno, 2001. "Disparities In Economic Growth And Unemployment Across The European Regions: A Sectoral Perspective," Working Paper CRENoS 200103, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    25. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 1999. "Macroeconomic adjustment with segmented labor markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 277-296, April.
    27. Hakan Berument & Eray M. Yucel, 2005. "Return and maturity relationships for treasury auctions: evidence from Turkey," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 385-419, September.
    28. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
    29. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1997. "Unanticipated Money Growth and the Business Cycle Reconsidered," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 624-648, November.
    30. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
    31. Berument, Hakan, 2007. "Measuring monetary policy for a small open economy: Turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 411-430, June.
    32. Joseph Djivre & Sigal Ribon, 2003. "Inflation, Unemployment, The Exchange Rate, And Monetary Policy In Israel, 1990–99: A Svar Approach," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 1(2), pages 71-99.
    33. Oded Izraeli & Kevin J. Murphy, 2003. "The effect of industrial diversity on state unemployment rate and per capita income," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-14, February.
    34. Madeline Zavodny & Tao Zha, 2000. "Monetary policy and racial unemployment rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 85(Q4), pages 1-16.
    35. Erol H. ÇAKMAK & Osman ZAIM, 1992. "PRIVATIZATION AND COMPARATIVE EFFICIENCY OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE ENTERPRISE IN TURKEY The Cement Industry," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 271-284, April.
    36. Berument, Hakan & Froyen, Richard T., 2006. "Monetary policy and long-term US interest rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 737-751, December.
    37. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    38. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    39. Atsuyuki Naka & David Tufte, 1997. "Examining impulse response functions in cointegrated systems," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1593-1603.
    40. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    41. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
    42. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    43. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D.F., 1992. "Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems," Economics Series Working Papers 99139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    44. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1997. "Unanticipated Money Growth and the Business Cycle Reconsidered," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 624-648, November.
    45. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1991. "Modeling the liquidity effect of a money shock," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 15(Win), pages 3-34.
    46. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ceyhun ELGİN & Tolga Umut KUZUBAŞ, 2012. "Wage-Productivity Gap in Turkish Manufacturing Sector," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(316), pages 09-31.
    2. Muhammad Shahid Hassan & Ayesha Wajid & Dawood Mamoon, 2014. "Some Non Price Factors that Fend off Unemployment in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 2(1), pages 29-35, January.
    3. Afşin Şahin & Aysit Tansel & M. Hakan Berument, 2015. "Output–Employment Relationship Across Sectors: A Long- Versus Short-Run Perspective," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 265-288, July.
    4. Elliot, Boateng, 2015. "The Relationship between Inflation and Unemployment in Ghana: Analysis of the Philips Curve," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 3(2), July.
    5. Afşin Şahin & Aysit Tansel & M. Hakan Berument, 2015. "Output–Employment Relationship Across Sectors: A Long- Versus Short-Run Perspective," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 265-288, July.
    6. Yıldırım Mustafa Ozan & Yıldırım Ahmet Eren, 2017. "The Influence of Consumption and Investment on Unemployment in Turkey: A Svar Approach," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 96(1), pages 74-92, January.
    7. Taylan Taner Dogan, 2012. "Macroeconomic Variables and Unemployment: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(1), pages 71-78.
    8. Augustine C Osigwe & Kenneth O Ahamba, 2016. "Macroeconomic conditions and unemployment in Nigeria," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(6), pages 21-28, December.
    9. Mohd Shahidan Shaari & Nor Ermawati Hussain & Hafizah Abdul Rahim, 2013. "The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 2(4), pages 72-83, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2009. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 21-34, May.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    3. Augustine C Osigwe & Kenneth O Ahamba, 2016. "Macroeconomic conditions and unemployment in Nigeria," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(6), pages 21-28, December.
    4. Guizani, Brahim, 2015. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy In Economies in Democratic Transition: Evidence from Tunisia," MPRA Paper 63205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    6. Verónica Mies & Felipe Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Política Monetaria y Mecanismos de Transmisión: Nuevos Elementos para una Vieja Discusión," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 181, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Norrbin, Stefan, 2001. "What Have We Learned from Empirical Tests of the Monetary Transmission Effect," Working Paper Series 121, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    8. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2006. "The Bank of Japan's operating procedures and the identification of monetary policy shocks: A reexamination using the Bernanke-Mihov approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 406-433, September.
    9. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    10. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 1999. "Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis," Economics Working Papers 446, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Bank loan components, uncertainty and monetary transmission mechanism," BCAM Working Papers 1702, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    12. Dedola, Luca & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1543-1569, August.
    13. Benjamin Keen, 2009. "Output, Inflation, and Interest Rates in an Estimated Optimizing Model of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 327-343, April.
    14. Burkhard Heer & Andreas Schabert, 2000. "Open Market Operations as a Monetary Policy Shock Measure in a Quantitative Business Cycle Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 396, CESifo.
    15. Rodrigo Alfaro & Carlos García & Alejandro Jara & Helmut Franken, 2005. "The bank lending channel in Chile," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 128-45, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. W. Douglas McMillin & William D. Lastrapes, 2001. "Cross-Country Variation in the Liquidity Effect," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    17. Lastrapes, W. D., 1998. "International evidence on equity prices, interest rates and money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-406, June.
    18. John W. Keating & Logan J. Kelly & A. Lee Smith & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2019. "A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 227-259, February.
    19. Shioji, Etsuro, 2000. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 22-42, March.
    20. M. Berument & Selahattin Togay & Afsin Sahin, 2011. "Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy: Turkey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 649-667, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:429. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.