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Unanticipated Money

  • Cooley, Thomas F.

    (Department of Economics, University of Rochester)

  • Hansen, Gary D.

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles)

The role of unanticipated changes in money growth for aggregate fluctuations is reexamined using the methods of quantitative equilibrium business cycle theory. A stochastic growth model with money is constructed that has the feature, following Lucas (1972, 1975), that production and trade take place in spatially separated markets (islands). Individuals must infer changes in the aggregate price level from observing local relative prices. This causes individuals to react to changes in the average price level, due to unanticipated changes in the aggregate money supply, as though they were changes in market specific relative prices. We show that this mechanism can lead to quantitatively large fluctuations in real economic activity. The statistical properties of these fluctuations, however, are quite different from the properties of fluctuations observed in the U.S. economy.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-42.pdf
File Function: First version, 1997
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Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 42.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Mar 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:42
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  1. Thomas F. Cooley & Gary D. Hansen, 1987. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," UCLA Economics Working Papers 496, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  3. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 1992. "Recursive methods for computing equilibria of business cycle models," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 36, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "On the contribution of technology shocks to business cycles," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 22-34.
  5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May.
  6. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
  7. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  9. Finn E. Kydland, 1989. "The role of money in a business cycle model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 23, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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