Dynamics of Output and Employment in the U.S. Economy
This paper investigates the changing relationship between employment and real output in the U.S. economy from 1948 to 2010 both at the aggregate level and at some major industry-grouping levels of disaggregation. Real output is conventionally measured as value added corrected for price inflation, but there are some industries in which no independent measure of value added is possible and existing statistics depend on imputing value added to equal income. Indexes of output that exclude these imputations are closely correlated with employment over the whole period, and remain more closely correlated during the current business cycle. This analysis offers insights into deeper structural changes that have taken place in the U.S. economy over the past few decades in a context marked by the following three factors: (i) the service (especially the financial) sector has grown in importance, (ii) the economy has become more globalized, and (iii) the policy orientation has increasingly become neoliberal. We demonstrate an economically significant reduction in the coefficient relating employment growth to output growth over the business cycles since 1985. Some of this change is due to sectoral shifts toward services, but an important part of it reflects a reduction in the coefficient for the goods and material value-adding sectors. JEL Categories: E12, E20
|Date of creation:||Feb 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Thompson Hall, Amherst, MA 01003|
Web page: http://www.umass.edu/economics
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dixon, R & Thirlwall, A P, 1975. "A Model of Regional Growth-Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 201-214, July.
- Rowthorn, R E, 1975. "A Reply to Lord Kaldor's Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(340), pages 897-901, December.
- William Milberg & Deborah Winkler, 2010. "Financialisation and the dynamics of offshoring in the USA," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 275-293, March.
- Thomas R. Michl, 1985. "International Comparisons of Productivity Growth: Verdoorn's Law Revisited," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 7(4), pages 474-492, July.
- Hausman, Jerry, 2015.
"Specification tests in econometrics,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
- Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-1271, November.
- J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2010. "Okun’s law and the unemployment surprise of 2009," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar8.
- Erica L. Groshen & Simon M. Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).
- Parikh, A, 1978. "Differences in Growth Rates and Kaldor's Laws," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 45(177), pages 83-91, February.
- Destefanis, Sergio, 2002. "The Verdoorn Law: Some Evidence from Non-parametric Frontier Analysis," MPRA Paper 60954, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Edward S. Knotek & II, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-103.
- Rowthorn, R E, 1975. "What Remains of Kaldor's Law?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(337), pages 10-19, March.
- Kaldor, Nicholas, 1975. "Economic Growth and the Verdoorn Law-A Comment on Mr. Rowthorn's Article," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(340), pages 891-896, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)