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How Large Will Be The Effect Of China'S Fiscal Stimulus Package On Output And Employment?


  • Dong He
  • Zhiwei Zhang
  • Wenlang Zhang


This paper estimates the effect of China's fiscal stimulus package on output and employment. The input-output analysis shows that the package has a multiplier of approximately 0.84 in the short run, generating 18-20 million new jobs in non-farming sectors in the first year. A dynamic structural model shows that the multiplier is around 1.1 in the medium run as fiscal spending leads to higher household consumption and corporate investment over time. The size of the fiscal multiplier also depends on the cyclical conditions of the economy, the policy environment and the distribution of funds across sectors. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Dong He & Zhiwei Zhang & Wenlang Zhang, 2009. "How Large Will Be The Effect Of China'S Fiscal Stimulus Package On Output And Employment?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 730-744, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:14:y:2009:i:5:p:730-744

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yingxin Shi & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2015. "Long-Run Fiscal Multipliers for Autonomous Prefectures in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(5), pages 687-695, December.
    2. repec:ilo:ilowps:433897 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Afşin Şahin & Aysit Tansel & M. Hakan Berument, 2015. "Output–Employment Relationship Across Sectors: A Long- Versus Short-Run Perspective," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 265-288, July.
    4. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Alessandro Rebucci, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects of China's Fiscal Stimulus," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1983, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Chen, Quanrun & Dietzenbacher, Erik & Los, Bart & Yang, Cuihong, 2016. "Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input–output model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 52-63.
    6. Hussain Ali Bekhet & Tahira Yasmin, 2014. "Assessment of the global financial crisis effects on energy consumption and economic growth in Malaysia: An input–output analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 140, pages 49-70.
    7. Zhang, Zhiwei & Zhang, Wenlang, 2011. "The road to recovery: Fiscal stimulus, financial sector rehabilitation, and potential risks ahead," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 311-321, August.
    8. Zhang, Wenlang & Zhang, Zhiwei & Han, Gaofeng, 2010. "How does the US credit crisis affect the Asia-Pacific economies?--Analysis based on a general equilibrium model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 280-292, June.
    9. Dreger, Christian & Zhang, Yanqun, 2014. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 184-189.
    10. Diao, Xinshen & Zhang, Yumei & Chen, Kevin Z., 2012. "The global recession and China's stimulus package: A general equilibrium assessment of country level impacts," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies


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