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How Dependent is the Chinese Economy on Exports and in What Sense has its Growth been Export-led?

Author

Listed:
  • Dong He

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Wenlang Zhang

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

This paper studies the interaction between foreign trade and domestic demand and supply in China¡¦s economic transformation. It compares China¡¦s export dependency with other economies using input-output analysis. The paper also conducts econometric analysis of provincial level data to examine causality between the growth of foreign trade and different components of domestic demand, and causality between the growth of foreign trade and total factor productivity. The main message is that China¡¦s export dependency is significantly lower than commonly thought. Moreover, the contribution of export to economic growth in China came mainly from its impact on total factor productivity growth from a supply perspective rather than its multiplier effect from a demand perspective. This relationship was found to be stronger in the more developed coastal areas than in the less developed inland areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong He & Wenlang Zhang, 2008. "How Dependent is the Chinese Economy on Exports and in What Sense has its Growth been Export-led?," Working Papers 0814, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0814
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led growth; Export dependency; Input-output analysis; Malmquist index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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