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Asset market participation, monetary policy rules and the great inflation

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  • Straub, Roland
  • Bilbiie, Florin O.

Abstract

This paper argues that limited asset market participation is crucial in explaining U.S. macroeconomic performance and monetary policy before the 1980s, and their changes thereafter. In an otherwise conventional sticky-price model, standard aggregate demand logic is inverted at low enough asset market participation: interest rate increases become expansionary; passive monetary policy ensures equilibrium determinacy and maximizes welfare. This suggests that Federal Reserve policy in the pre-Volcker era was better than conventional wisdom implies. We provide empirical evidence consistent with this hypothesis, and study the relative merits of changes in structure and shocks for reproducing the conquest of the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E44, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Straub, Roland & Bilbiie, Florin O., 2012. "Asset market participation, monetary policy rules and the great inflation," Working Paper Series 1438, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121438
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu, 2016. "Optimal Forward Guidance," CEPR Discussion Papers 11251, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2008. "Limited asset markets participation, monetary policy and (inverted) aggregate demand logic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, pages 162-196.
    3. Hofmann, Boris & Peersman, Gert & Straub, Roland, 2012. "Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 769-783.
    4. Florin O. Bilbiie & Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2013. "Public Debt and Redistribution with Borrowing Constraints," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 64-98, February.
    5. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Straub, Roland, 2012. "Changes in the output Euler equation and asset markets participation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 1659-1672.
    6. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2017. "Hopf Bifurcation from new-Keynesian Taylor rule to Ramsey Optimal Policy," EconStor Preprints 158001, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    7. Motta, Giorgio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2015. "Money Targeting, Heterogeneous Agents, And Dynamic Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, pages 288-310.
    8. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Khramov, Vadim & Nicolò, Giovanni, 2015. "Solving and estimating indeterminate DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 17-36.
    9. Alexander Kriwoluzky & Christian A. Stoltenberg, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Transaction Role of Money in the US," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(587), pages 1452-1473, September.
    10. J. Galí & D. López-Salido & J. Vallés, 2003. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Straub, Roland & Barnett, Alina, 2008. "What drives U.S. current account fluctuations?," Working Paper Series 959, European Central Bank.
    12. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    13. Raffaele Rossi, 2007. "Rule of Thumb Consumers, Public Debt and Income Tax," Working Papers 2007_44, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Dec 2007.
    14. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad & López-Salido, David, 2011. "The role of liquid government bonds in the great transformation of American monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 282-294, March.
    15. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu, 2017. "The New Keynesian Cross: Understanding Monetary Policy with Hand-to-Mouth Households," CEPR Discussion Papers 11989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    great inflation; great moderation; limited asset markets participation; passive monetary policy rules;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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