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Asset Market Participation, Monetary Policy Rules, and the Great Inflation

  • Florin O. Bilbiie

    (Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, and CEPR)

  • Roland Straub

    (European Central Bank)

This paper argues that limited asset market participation is crucial in explaining U.S. macroeconomic performance and monetary policy before the 1980s and their changes thereafter. In an otherwise conventional sticky-price model, standard aggregate demand logic is inverted at low enough asset market participation: interest rate increases become expansionary, and passive monetary policy ensures equilibrium determinacy and maximizes welfare. This suggests that Federal Reserve policy in the pre-Volcker era was better than conventional wisdom implies. We provide empirical evidence consistent with this hypothesis and study the relative merits of changes in structure and shocks for reproducing the conquest of the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation. © 2013 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/REST_a_00254
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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 95 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 377-392

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:95:y:2013:i:2:p:377-392
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  1. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot J., 2006. "What accounts for the changes in U.S. fiscal policy transmission?," Working Paper Series 0582, European Central Bank.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  3. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  5. Silber, William L, 1983. "The Process of Financial Innovation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 89-95, May.
  6. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Structural changes in the US economy: Is there a role for monetary policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 477-490, February.
  7. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1999. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1888, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  8. Galí, Jordi & Lopez-Salido, Jose David & Vallés Liberal, Javier, 2004. "Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and the Design of Interest Rate Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Working Paper 06-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  10. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, October.
  12. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A., 1996. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers 96-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  13. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Estimation and control of an optimization-based model with sticky prices and wages," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1181-1215, May.
  14. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2008. "Limited asset markets participation, monetary policy and (inverted) aggregate demand logic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 162-196, May.
  17. Farmer, Roger E A, 2010. "Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function," CEPR Discussion Papers 8100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  19. Asena Caner & Edward Wolff, 2004. "Asset Poverty in the United States, 1984-1999," Challenge, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(1), pages 5-52, January.
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  21. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2006. "Financial Innovations and Macroeconomic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 12308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Peter N. Ireland, 2002. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 536, Boston College Department of Economics.
  23. Florin Bilbiie & Roland Straub, 2012. "Changes in the Output Euler Equation and Asset Markets Participation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00680647, HAL.
  24. Asena Caner & Edward N. Wolff, 2004. "Asset Poverty In The United States, 1984-99: Evidence From The Panel Study Of Income Dynamics," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 50(4), pages 493-518, December.
  25. John V. Duca, 2001. "The democratization of America's capital markets," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 10-19.
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