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Identifying the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Using Structural Breaks

  • Beyer, Andreas
  • Farmer, Roger E A

We propose a method for estimating a subset of the parameters of a structural rational expectations model by exploiting changes in policy. We define a class of models, midway between a vector autoregression and a structural model, that we call the recoverable structure. We provide an application of our method by estimating the parameters of a three equation model of the monetary transmission mechanism using data from 1970:Q1 to 1999:Q4. We estimate a vector autoregression and find that the parameters of this VAR are unstable. However, using our proposed identification method we are able to attribute instability in the parameters of the VAR solely to changes in the parameters of the policy rule. We recover parameter estimates of the recoverable structure and we demonstrate that these parameters are invariant to changes in policy. Since the recoverable structure includes future expectations as explanatory variables our parameter estimates are not subject to the Lucas Critique of Econometric Policy Evaluation.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4106.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4106
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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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  10. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
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  17. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Bean, Charles R., 1984. "A little bit more evidence on the natural rate hypothesis from the U.K," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 279-292, August.
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