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The Evolution of Endogenous Business Cycles

  • Roger E. A. Farmer

    (University of California, Los Angeles and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

This paper distinguishes between two kinds of Endogenous Business Cycle models, and discusses the evolution from first generation EBC1 models to second generation EBC2 models. I argue that EBC1 models, which display dynamic indeterminacy, are part of the evolution of modern macroeconomics that has classical roots dating back to the 1920s. EBC2 models, which display steady-state indeterminacy, are a more radical departure from the classical Real Business Cycle model; they represent a return to one of the most important ideas to emerge from Keynes' (1936) General Theory; that high involuntary unemployment can persist as part of the steady-state equilibrium of a market economy.

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Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 302012.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:302012
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  1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
  2. Farmer, Roger E A, 2000. "Natural Rate Doubts," CEPR Discussion Papers 2426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Plotnikov, Dmitry, 2012. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder And Solow Revisited," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S1), pages 149-166, April.
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jordi Gali & Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2010. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," 2010 Meeting Papers 126, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Marco Guerrazzi, 2012. "The ‘Farmerian’ Approach to Ending a Finance-Induced Recession: Notes on Stability and Dynamics," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 41(1-2), pages 81-99, 02.
  7. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  9. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2002. "Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 8850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Working Papers 91-59, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  11. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1976. "Job Search and Participation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(169), pages 33-49, February.
  12. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 18413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2011. "The Stock Market Crash of 2008 Caused the Great Recession: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Grandmont Jean-michel, 1983. "On endogenous competitive business cycles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8316, CEPREMAP.
  15. Farmer, Roger E A, 2011. "Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8439, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  17. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
  19. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1713-1764, December.
  20. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Burnside, Craig, 1996. "Production function regressions, returns to scale, and externalities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 177-201, April.
  22. Hall, Robert E, 1997. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Time," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages S223-50, January.
  23. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2008. "Aggregate demand and supply," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(1), pages 77-93.
  24. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 2000. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Dynamics of Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1136-1159, December.
  25. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
  26. Mortensen, Dale T, 1970. "Job Search, the Duration of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(5), pages 847-62, December.
  27. P. Diamond, 1980. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Working papers 268, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  28. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
  29. Roger Farmer, 2013. "The Stock Market Crash Really Did Cause the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 19391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "Pegs, Downward Wage Rigidity, and Unemployment: The Role of Financial Structure," NBER Working Papers 18223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Paolo Gelain & Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "A DSGE Model from the Old Keynesian Economics: An Empirical Investigation," CDMA Working Paper Series 201014, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  32. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
  33. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, June.
  34. Farmer, Roger, 2010. "Expectations, Employment and Prices," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195397901, March.
  35. Marco Guerrazzi, 2011. "Search And Stochastic Dynamics In The Old Keynesian Economics: A Rationale For The Shimer Puzzle," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 561-586, November.
  36. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Wage Determination and Efficiency in Search Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 217-27, April.
  37. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
  38. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
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