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Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics

Editor

Listed:
  • Roman Frydman
    (New York University)

  • Edmund S. Phelps
    (Center on Capitalism and Society, Columbia University)

Abstract

This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Frydman & Edmund S. Phelps (ed.), 2013. "Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10002.
  • Handle: RePEc:pup:pbooks:10002
    as

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2016. "Non-linear exchange rate relationships: An automated model selection approach with indicator saturation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 84-109.
    2. Múñoz, Féliz-Fernando & Encinar, María-Isabel & Cañibano, Carolina, 2016. "Agents, interaction, and economic laws: An analytical framework for understanding different economic theories," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2016/05, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    3. Fongoni, Marco & Dickson, Alex, 2015. "A Theory of Wage Setting Behavior," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-57, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2015. "Expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence: an exploration of firms' and households' expectation formation," Working Papers 15-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Paul Mueller, 2014. "An Austrian view of expectations and business cycles," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 199-214, June.
    6. Iván H. Ayala & Alfonso Palacio Vera, 2014. "Mainstream Macroeconomics in the Light of Popper
      [La macroeconomía ortodoxa a la luz de Popper]
      ," Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales 14-04, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    7. Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "Heterogeneous Market Beliefs, Fundamentals and the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Eurozone," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82, pages 1153-1176, December.
    8. Fongoni, Marco & Dickson, Alex, 2015. "A Theory of Wage Setting Behavior," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-57, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    9. Vipin P. Veetil & Lawrence H. White, 2017. "Towards a New Austrian Macroeconomics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 19-38, March.

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