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Production Networks, Time to Build and Endogenous Oscillations

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Bizzarri

    (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF)

  • Marco Pangallo

    (CENTAI Institute)

  • Francisco Queirós

    (ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management)

Abstract

We study how sector-specific shocks propagate in a production economy with input-output linkages and heterogeneous time to build. We show that, depending on the sector and network characteristics, one-time idiosyncratic shocks can induce a non-monotonic response of aggregate output as it converges back to steady state– a phenomenon we term ’endogenous oscillations’ – and get amplified over time. We study the conditions on the network structure that generate this behavior. We introduce a measure to quantify the magnitude of such endogenous oscillations generated by a single small productivity shock. We quantify the model on US input-output data, showing that for some sectors a single shock can generate aggregate fluctuations. In particular, the magnitude of oscillations is twice as large as it would be if convergence to the steady state were always monotonic.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Bizzarri & Marco Pangallo & Francisco Queirós, 2025. "Production Networks, Time to Build and Endogenous Oscillations," CSEF Working Papers 764, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:764
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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