IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sef/csefwp/764.html

Production Networks, Time to Build and Endogenous Oscillations

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Bizzarri

    (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF)

  • Marco Pangallo

    (CENTAI Institute)

  • Francisco Queirós

    (ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management)

Abstract

We study how sector-specific shocks propagate in a production economy with input-output linkages and heterogeneous time to build. We show that, depending on the sector and network characteristics, one-time idiosyncratic shocks can induce a non-monotonic response of aggregate output as it converges back to steady state– a phenomenon we term ’endogenous oscillations’ – and get amplified over time. We study the conditions on the network structure that generate this behavior. We introduce a measure to quantify the magnitude of such endogenous oscillations generated by a single small productivity shock. We quantify the model on US input-output data, showing that for some sectors a single shock can generate aggregate fluctuations. In particular, the magnitude of oscillations is twice as large as it would be if convergence to the steady state were always monotonic.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Bizzarri & Marco Pangallo & Francisco Queirós, 2025. "Production Networks, Time to Build and Endogenous Oscillations," CSEF Working Papers 764, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:764
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.csef.it/WP/wp764.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pol Antras & Davin Chor & Thibault Fally & Russell Hillberry, 2012. "Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 412-416, May.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    3. Gale, David, 1973. "Pure exchange equilibrium of dynamic economic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 12-36, February.
    4. Paul Beaudry & Dana S. Galizia & Franck Portier, 2024. "How Do Strategic Complementarity and Substitutability Shape Equilibrium Dynamics?," NBER Working Papers 32661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
    6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    7. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    8. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    9. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 2000. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Dynamics of Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1136-1159, December.
    10. Pangallo, Marco, 2025. "Synchronization of endogenous business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    11. Ernest Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2024. "A Dynamic Model of Input–Output Networks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(6), pages 3608-3644.
    12. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
    13. Alexandr Kopytov & Bineet Mishra & Kristoffer Nimark & Mathieu Taschereau‐Dumouchel, 2024. "Endogenous Production Networks Under Supply Chain Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(5), pages 1621-1659, September.
    14. Jess Benhabib & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "The Hopf Bifurcation and Existence and Stability of Closed Orbits in Multisector Models of Optimal Economic Growth," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 51-73, Springer.
    15. Dos Santos Ferreira, Rodolphe & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa, 2005. "Non-linear endogenous fluctuations with free entry and variable markups," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 847-871, May.
    16. Reichlin, Pietro, 1986. "Equilibrium cycles in an overlapping generations economy with production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 89-102, October.
    17. Asea, Patrick K. & Zak, Paul J., 1999. "Time-to-build and cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 1155-1175, August.
    18. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2020. "Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(1), pages 1-47, January.
    19. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2016. "The Evolution Of Endogenous Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 544-557, March.
    2. Tarek Coury & Yi Wen, 2007. "Global indeterminacy in locally determinate RBC models," Working Papers 2007-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Tarek Coury & Yi Wen, 2009. "Global indeterminacy in locally determinate real business cycle models," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 49-60, March.
    4. Tvede Mich, 2009. "Fluctuations in Overlapping Generations Economies," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, May.
    5. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2016. "Azar, Determinismo e Indecidibilidad en la Teoría del Ciclo Económico [Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Business Cycle Theory]," MPRA Paper 72978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Frédéric Dufourt & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2025. "Expectations, beliefs and the business cycle: tracing back to the deep economic drivers," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(1), pages 89-149, February.
    7. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2019. "The Indeterminacy School in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 25879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ignacio Escañuela ROMANA, 2016. "Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic Cycle Theory," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 638-658, December.
    9. Cazzavillan, Guido & Pintus, Patrick A., 2005. "On competitive cycles and sunspots in productive economies with a positive money stock," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 137-147, June.
    10. Dessertaine, Théo & Moran, José & Benzaquen, Michael & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2022. "Out-of-equilibrium dynamics and excess volatility in firm networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Roger E A Farmer, 2019. "The Indeterminacy Agenda in Macroeconomics," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 507, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    12. Wälde, Klaus, 1999. "A Poisson-Ramsey growth model: Creative destruction, endogenous cycles and growth," Technical Reports 1999,32, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    13. Michael Assous & Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2017. "Challenging Lucas: from overlapping generations to infinite-lived agent models," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_03, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    14. Wang, Pengfei & Wen, Yi, 2008. "Imperfect competition and indeterminacy of aggregate output," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 519-540, November.
    15. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Incomplete information and self-fulfilling prophecies," Working Papers 2007-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Jaimovich, Nir, 2007. "Firm dynamics and markup variations: Implications for sunspot equilibria and endogenous economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 300-325, November.
    17. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
    18. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Public Expenditure on Health and Private Old-Age Insurance in an OLG Growth Model with Endogenous Fertility: Chaotic Dynamics Under Perfect Foresight," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 333-353, December.
    19. Guerrazzi, Marco, 2012. "The animal spirits hypothesis and the Benhabib–Farmer condition for indeterminacy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1489-1497.
    20. Cazzavillan, Guido & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Pintus, Patrick A., 1998. "Multiple Steady States and Endogenous Fluctuations with Increasing Returns to Scale in Production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 60-107, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:764. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Maria Carannante (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cssalit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.