IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/30673.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The animal spirits hypothesis and the Benhabib-Farmer condition for indeterminacy

Author

Listed:
  • Guerrazzi, Marco

Abstract

This paper provides a self-contained review of the introduction of the animal spirits hypothesis into the infinite horizon optimal growth model. The analysis begins with an economic discussion of Pontryagin’s maximum principles. Thereafter, I develop a version of the increasing-returns Benhabib-Farmer model by showing the possible sub-optimality of the central planner solution and deriving the bifurcation condition for indeterminacy. Moreover, I give some insights on how to model intrinsic and extrinsic uncertainty. Finally, analysing the equilibrium condition of the labour market, I provide an intuitive rationale for the mechanism that in this model might lead prophecies to be self-fulfilling.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerrazzi, Marco, 2011. "The animal spirits hypothesis and the Benhabib-Farmer condition for indeterminacy," MPRA Paper 30673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30673
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30673/1/MPRA_paper_30673.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    2. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1995. "Comments on Farmer and Guo's \\"the econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study.\\"," Staff Report 196, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Kamihigashi, Takashi, 1996. "Real business cycles and sunspot fluctuations are observationally equivalent," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 105-117, February.
    4. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    5. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, April.
    6. Jess Benhabib & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 311-346, Springer.
    7. Dorfman, Robert, 1969. "An Economic Interpretation of Optimal Control Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 817-831, December.
    8. Burda Michael C. & Weder Mark, 2002. "Complementarity of Labor Market Institutions, Equilibrium Unemployment and the Propagation of Business Cycles," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, February.
    9. Shell, Karl, 1971. "Notes on the Economics of Infinity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 1002-1011, Sept.-Oct.
    10. Giammarioli, Nicola, 2003. "Indeterminacy and search theory," Working Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    11. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1991. "Productive externalities and business cycles," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
    13. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    14. M Guerrazzi, 2008. "A Dynamic Efficiency-Wage Model with Continuous Effort and Externalities," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 13(2), pages 37-58, September.
    15. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies And The Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(4), pages 740-769, December.
    16. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1963. "Appendix to 'On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth'," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 163A, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    17. K. Shell, 1968. "Applications of Pontryagin's Maximum Principle of Economics," Working papers 16, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    18. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    19. Boldrin, Michele & Rustichini, Aldo, 1994. "Growth and Indeterminacy in Dynamic Models with Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 323-342, March.
    20. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
    21. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
    22. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
    23. Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine & Paul Romer, 1992. "On Characterizing Equilibria of Models with Externalities and Taxes as Solutions to Optimization Problems," Levine's Working Paper Archive 124, David K. Levine.
    24. Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K & Romer, Paul M, 1992. "On Characterizing Equilibria of Economies with Externalities and Taxes as Solutions to Optimization Problems," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 2(1), pages 43-68, January.
    25. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1963. "On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    26. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    27. Mas-Colell, Andreu & Whinston, Michael D. & Green, Jerry R., 1995. "Microeconomic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195102680.
    28. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
    29. Ricardo J. Caballero & Richard K. Lyons, 1989. "The Role of External Economies in U.S. Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 3033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Nakajima, Tomoyuki, 2006. "Unemployment and indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 314-327, January.
    31. Robert E. Hall, 1991. "Labor Demand, Labor Supply, and Employment Volatility," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 17-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marco Guerrazzi, 2016. "Increasing Returns in Matching and Labour Market Dynamics: Comments on Indeterminacy and Search Theory," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 15(1), pages 85-88, June.
    2. Gomes, Orlando, 2015. "Optimal resource allocation in a representative investor economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 72-84.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kazuo Mino, 2017. "Sunspot-Driven Business Cycles: An Overview," KIER Working Papers 973, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & G. Harrison, Sharon, 1999. "Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-31, August.
    3. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2016. "Azar, Determinismo e Indecidibilidad en la Teoría del Ciclo Económico [Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Business Cycle Theory]," MPRA Paper 72978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ignacio Escañuela ROMANA, 2016. "Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic Cycle Theory," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 638-658, December.
    5. Tarek Coury & Yi Wen, 2007. "Global indeterminacy in locally determinate RBC models," Working Papers 2007-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Herrendorf, Berthold & Valentinyi, Akos, 2006. "On the stability of the two-sector neoclassical growth model with externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1339-1361, August.
    7. Bill Dupor, 2005. "Keynesian Conundrum: Multiplicity and Time Consistent Stabilization," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), pages 154-177, January.
    8. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
    9. Jaimovich, Nir, 2007. "Firm dynamics and markup variations: Implications for sunspot equilibria and endogenous economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 300-325, November.
    10. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2016. "The Evolution Of Endogenous Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 544-557, March.
    11. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2019. "The Indeterminacy School in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 25879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Roger E A Farmer, 2019. "The Indeterminacy Agenda in Macroeconomics," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 507, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    13. Jaimovich, Nir, 2008. "Income effects and indeterminacy in a calibrated one-sector growth model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 610-623, November.
    14. Wang, Pengfei & Wen, Yi, 2008. "Imperfect competition and indeterminacy of aggregate output," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 519-540, November.
    15. Tarek Coury & Yi Wen, 2009. "Global indeterminacy in locally determinate real business cycle models," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 49-60, March.
    16. Lindström, Tomas, 1999. "External Economies at the Firm Level: Evidence from Swedish Manufacturing," Working Paper Series 89, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. Russell W. Cooper, 2005. "Estimation and Identification of Structural Parameters in the Presence of Multiple Equilibria," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, Winter.
    18. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 1998. "Indeterminacy and Stabilization Policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 481-490, October.
    19. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    20. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Maximum problems in continuous time; indeterminate equilibrium paths; self-fulfilling prophecies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30673. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.