IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Wealth and Volatility

  • Fabrizio Perri

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Jonathan Heathcote

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

We document a strong negative relation in the United States between wealth and aggregate volatility. For example the 1970s and the late 2000s were periods of low asset values and high volatility. The early 1960s and the Great Moderation of the 1980s and 1990s were periods of high asset values and low volatility. Motivated by this fact, we develop a simple theoretical model that links asset values to the extent of business cycle fluctuations. In our environment economic fluctuations can be driven by fluctuations in household optimism or pessimism (animal spirits), as in traditional Keynesian frameworks. The new element is a precautionary motive in consumption demand, the strength of which varies with aggregate wealth and unemployment risk. This implies that fluctuations due to "animal spirits" (and hence the level of volatility) depend crucially on the value of wealth in the economy. When wealth is high the precautionary motive is weak and demand is not sensitive to change in expectations. In this case the economy has a “neo-classical†unique equilibrium and demand management is not effective as a stabilization policy. When wealth is low the economy is vulnerable to confidence shocks, high volatility is possible due to a multiplicity of equilibria, and there is a role for demand management.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2012/paper_914.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2012 Meeting Papers with number 914.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:914
Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
Fax: 1-314-444-8731
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2013. "Precautionary Saving over the Business Cycle," PSE Working Papers hal-00843150, HAL.
  2. Davis, Morris & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2005. "The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 5333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Leo Grebler & David M. Blank & Louis Winnick, 1956. "Capital Formation in Residential Real Estate: Trends and Prospects," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greb56-1, June.
  4. Christopher Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," Economics Working Paper Archive 602, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  5. P. Diamond, 1980. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Working papers 268, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," 2004 Meeting Papers 644, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Liquidity and Trading Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 13204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Gernot Müller & André Meier & Giancarlo Corsetti, 2012. "What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 12/150, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Pascal Michaillat, 2010. "Do Matching Frictions Explain Unemployment? Not in Bad Times," CEP Discussion Papers dp1024, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  10. Andrew Benito, 2004. "Does job insecurity affect household consumption?," Bank of England working papers 220, Bank of England.
  11. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565, October.
  12. Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August.
  13. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1971. "A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 82-93, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed012:914. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.