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Monetary Policy and Heterogeneity: An Analytical Framework

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  • Florin Bilbiie

    (University of Lausanne)

Abstract

An analytical (heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian) HANK model allows a closed-form treatment of a wide range of NK topics: determinacy properties of interest-rate rules, resolving the forward guidance FG puzzle, amplification and fiscal multipliers, liquidity traps, and optimal monetary policy. The key channel shaping all the model's properties is that of cyclical inequality: whether the income of constrained agents moves less or more than proportionally with aggregate income. With countercyclical inequality, good news on aggregate demand gets compounded, making determinacy less likely and aggravating the FG puzzle (the resolution of which requires procyclical inequality)---a Catch-22, because countercyclical inequality is what HANK (and TANK) models need to deliver desirable amplification. The dilemma can be resolved if a distinct, "cyclical-risk" channel is procyclical enough. Even when both channels are countercyclical a Wicksellian rule of price-level targeting ensures determinacy and cures the puzzle. Optimal monetary policy is isomorphic to RANK and TANK but calls for less inflation stabilization. In a liquidity trap, even with countercyclical inequality and FG amplification, optimal policy does not imply larger FG duration because as FG power increases, so does its welfare cost.

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  • Florin Bilbiie, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Heterogeneity: An Analytical Framework," 2019 Meeting Papers 178, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:178
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Atif R. Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2020. "Indebted Demand," NBER Working Papers 26940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Cantore, C. & Freund, L. B., 2020. "Workers, Capitalists, and the Government: Fiscal Policy and Income (Re)Distribution," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2095, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Adrien Auclert & Ludwig Straub & Matthew Rognlie, 2019. "Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: monetary policy and business cycles in an estimated HANK model," 2019 Meeting Papers 1449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Nakata, Taisuke & Ogaki, Ryota & Schmidt, Sebastian & Yoo, Paul, 2019. "Attenuating the forward guidance puzzle: Implications for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 90-106.
    6. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu & Känzig, Diego R & Surico, Paolo, 2019. "Capital, Income Inequality, and Consumption: the Missing Link," CEPR Discussion Papers 14118, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Cem Gorgun, 2019. "Monetary Unions and National Welfare," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1912, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    8. Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Scheer, Alexander, 2020. "The power of forward guidance in a quantitative TANK model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    9. Airaudo, Marco, 2020. "Temptation and forward-guidance," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    10. Robert Amano & Stefano Gnocchi & Sylvain Leduc & Joel Wagner, 2020. "Average is Good Enough: Average-inflation Targeting and the ELB," Staff Working Papers 20-31, Bank of Canada.
    11. Roulleau-Pasdeloup, Jordan, 2020. "Optimal monetary policy and determinacy under active/passive regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Sanjay R. Singh & Nicolas Caramp, 2020. "Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 336, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    13. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra, 2020. "Understanding HANK: Insights From a PRANK," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1113-1158, May.
    14. Rodríguez Arosemena, Nicolás, 2018. "The Dominium Mundi Game and the Case for Artificial Intelligence in Economics and the Law," MPRA Paper 90560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Maliar, Lilia & Naubert, Christopher, 2019. "TANK Models with Amplification and no Puzzles: the Magic of Output Stabilization and Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 14159, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Jung, Yongseung, 2019. "What drives business cycles in Korea?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu, 2018. "Neo-Fisherian Policies and Liquidity Traps," CEPR Discussion Papers 13334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2020. "The New Keynesian cross," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 90-108.
    19. Moser, Christian & Saidi, Farzad & Wirth, Benjamin & Wolter, Stefanie, 2020. "Credit Supply, Firms, and Earnings Inequality," MPRA Paper 100371, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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