IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pen/papers/12-048.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Greg Kaplan

    (Department of Economics, Princeton University)

  • Guido Menzio

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

We propose a novel theory of self-fulfilling fluctuations in the labor market. A firm employing an additional worker generates positive externalities on other firms, because employed workers have more income to spend and have less time to shop for low prices than unemployed workers. We quantify these shopping externalities and show that they are sufficiently strong to create strategic complementarities in the employment decisions of different firms and to generate multiple rational expectations equilibria. Equilibria differ with respect to the agents’ (rational) expectations about future unemployment. We show that negative shocks to agents’ expectations lead to fluctuations in vacancies, unemployment, labor productivity and the stock market that closely resemble those observed in the US during the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2012. "Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-048, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:12-048
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/sites/default/files/filevault/12-048.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan B. Krueger & Andreas Mueller, 2008. "Job Search and Unemployment Insurance: New Evidence from Time Use Data," Working Papers 1070, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    2. Krueger, Alan B. & Mueller, Andreas, 2010. "Job search and unemployment insurance: New evidence from time use data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3-4), pages 298-307, April.
    3. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    4. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    5. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2015. "Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 549-585, March.
    6. Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 608-617, March.
    7. Christiano, Lawrence J. & G. Harrison, Sharon, 1999. "Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-31, August.
    8. Russell Cooper & Andrew John, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-463.
    9. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-894, October.
    10. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    11. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    12. Roberts, John, 1987. "An Equilibrium Model with Involuntary Unemployment at Flexible, Competitive Prices and Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 856-874, December.
    13. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
    14. Melvin Stephens, 2004. "Job Loss Expectations, Realizations, and Household Consumption Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 253-269, February.
    15. Allen Head & Lucy Qian Liu & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2012. "Sticky Prices: A New Monetarist Approach," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 939-973, October.
    16. Boldrin, Michele & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1993. "A dynamic equilibrium model of search, production, and exchange," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 723-758.
    17. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst & Loukas Karabarbounis, 2013. "Time Use during the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1664-1696, August.
    18. Melvin Stephens, 2001. "The Long-Run Consumption Effects Of Earnings Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 28-36, February.
    19. Rotemberg, Julio J. & Woodford, Michael, 1999. "The cyclical behavior of prices and costs," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1051-1135, Elsevier.
    20. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 1988. "Multiple Expectational Equilibria Under Monopolistic Competition," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(4), pages 695-713.
    21. Alan T. Sorensen, 2000. "Equilibrium Price Dispersion in Retail Markets for Prescription Drugs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 833-862, August.
    22. Gerard R. Butters, 1977. "Equilibrium Distributions of Sales and Advertising Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 465-491.
    23. Samuel Bentolila & Andrea Ichino, 2008. "Unemployment and consumption near and far away from the Mediterranean," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(2), pages 255-280, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2016. "Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(3), pages 771-825.
    2. repec:pri:cepsud:234kaplan is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Christiano, Lawrence J. & G. Harrison, Sharon, 1999. "Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-31, August.
    4. Jaimovich, Nir, 2007. "Firm dynamics and markup variations: Implications for sunspot equilibria and endogenous economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 300-325, November.
    5. Fagnart, Jean-Francois & Pierrard, O. & Sneessens, Henri R., 2007. "Microeconomic uncertainty and macroeconomic indeterminacy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1564-1588, August.
    6. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.
    7. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Incomplete information and self-fulfilling prophecies," Working Papers 2007-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Cooper, Russell W. & Johri, Alok, 1997. "Dynamic complementarities: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 97-119, September.
    9. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2006. "Imperfect competition and sunspots," Working Papers 2006-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Kazuo Mino, 2017. "Sunspot-Driven Business Cycles: An Overview," KIER Working Papers 973, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    11. Harrison, Sharon G., 2001. "Indeterminacy in a model with sector-specific externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 747-764, May.
    12. Bill Dupor, 2005. "Keynesian Conundrum: Multiplicity and Time Consistent Stabilization," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), pages 154-177, January.
    13. Sniekers, F.J.T., 2013. "Endogenous Beveridge cycles and the volatility of unemployment," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    14. George-Marios Angeletos, 2018. "Frictional Coordination," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 563-603.
    15. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2000. "Two New Keynesian Theories Of Sticky Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 74-107, March.
    16. Cazzavillan, Guido & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Pintus, Patrick A., 1998. "Multiple Steady States and Endogenous Fluctuations with Increasing Returns to Scale in Production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 60-107, May.
    17. Golosov, Mikhail & Menzio, Guido, 2020. "Agency business cycles," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(1), January.
    18. Russell Cooper & Andrew John, 2000. "Imperfect competition and macroeconomics : Theory and quantitative implications," Cahiers d'Économie Politique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 289-328.
    19. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611, September.
    20. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2001. "Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 225-302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Chen, Guo & Korpeoglu, C. Gizem & Spear, Stephen E., 2017. "Price stickiness and markup variations in market games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 95-103.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Self-fulfilling fluctuations; strategic complementarity; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pen:papers:12-048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deupaus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Administrator (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deupaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.