IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic

  • Philippe Bacchetta
  • Eric van Wincoop

While the 2008-2009 financial crisis originated in the United States, we witnessed steep declines in output, consumption and investment of similar magnitudes around the globe. This raises two questions. First, given the observed strong home bias in goods and financial markets, what can account for the remarkable global business cycle synchronicity during this period? Second, what can explain the difference relative to previous recessions, where we witnessed far weaker co-movement? To address these questions, we develop a two-country model that allows for self-fulfilling business cycle panics. We show that a business cycle panic will necessarily be synchronized across countries as long as there is a minimum level of economic integration. Moreover, we show that several factors generated particular vulnerability to such a global panic in 2008: tight credit, the zero lower bound, unresponsive fiscal policy and increased economic integration.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/textes/13.05.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 13.05.

as
in new window

Length: 45 pp. + figures (total 60 pp.)
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:13.05
Contact details of provider: Postal: Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, Internef, CH-1015 Lausanne
Phone: ++41 21 692.33.20
Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications/cahiers/series
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 728-738, May.
  2. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2011. "Confidence Crashes and Animal Spirits," 2011 Meeting Papers 603, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2015. "Wealth and Volatility," Staff Report 508, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Christian Broda & David Weinstein, 2004. "Globalization and the gains from variety," Staff Reports 180, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Thomas Helbling & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Raju Huidrom, 2010. "Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 10/261, International Monetary Fund.
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew C. Weinzierl, 2011. "An Exploration of Optimal Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 17029, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & Fabrizio Perri, 2012. "Global Banks and Crisis Transmission," NBER Working Papers 18209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
  9. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1302, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  10. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 18413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Martin Bodenstein, 2008. "Trade elasticity of substitution and equilibrium dynamics," International Finance Discussion Papers 934, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Vincent Sterk & Morten Ravn, 2013. "Job Uncertainty and Deep Recessions," 2013 Meeting Papers 921, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Luca Dedola & Giovanni Lombardo, 2012. "Financial frictions, financial integration and the international propagation of shocks," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(70), pages 319-359, 04.
  14. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2012. "Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand," Working Papers 12-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  15. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
  16. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 1995. "Comparing four models of aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Robert Kollmann & Zeno Enders & Gernot J. Müller, 2010. "Global Banking and International Business Cycles," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-028, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  18. Kahle, Kathleen M. & Stulz, Rene M., 2012. "Access to Capital, Investment, and the Financial Crisis," Working Paper Series 2012-02, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  19. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: an update," Working Paper Series 2011-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  20. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2011. "Evaluating international financial integration under leverage constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 427-442, April.
  21. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2011. "Which financial frictions? Parsing the evidence from the financial crisis of 2007-09," Staff Reports 528, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  22. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
  23. Kamin, Steven B. & DeMarco, Laurie Pounder, 2012. "How did a domestic housing slump turn into a global financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 10-41.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:13.05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gaëlle Sarda)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.