IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/062012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sudden Spikes in Global Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Bacchetta

    (University of Lausanne and Centre for Economic Policy Research and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • Eric van Wincoop

    (University of Virginia and National Bureau of Economic Research and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Abstract

Recent episodes (October 2008, May 2010, August 2011) have witnessed huge spikes in equity price risk (implied volatility). Apart from their large size, several features characterize these risk panics. They are global phenomena, shared among a broad set of countries. There is substantial variation though in the extent to which individual countries are impacted, while the impact bears little relation to financial linkages with the epicenter of the crisis. In addition there is usually not a large shock to fundamentals that sets off these panics. We provide an explanation for these risk panic features in the context of a two-country model that allows for self-fulfilling shifts in risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2012. "Sudden Spikes in Global Risk," Working Papers 062012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:062012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/20/ub_full_0_2_313_wp-no-06_2012-final-.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2010. "Financial globalization, financial crises and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 24-39, January.
    2. Fabrizio Perri & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2018. "International Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 935-984, April.
    3. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross‐Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, August.
    4. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    5. Acemoglu, Daron & Woodford, Michael (ed.), 2012. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226002149, July.
    6. Kollmann, Robert, 2012. "Global Banks, Fiscal Policy and International Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 69887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Garry J. Schinasi & R. Todd Smith, 2000. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-1.
    8. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
    9. John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 1060-1075, November.
    10. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2008. "The Role of Portfolio Constraints in the International Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(4), pages 1215-1256.
    11. Philippe Bacchetta & Cédric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2012. "Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3674-3700, December.
    12. Giovanni Lombardo & Luca Dedola, 2011. "Financial frictions, financial integration and the international propagation of shocks," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 14, pages 5-10.
    13. Eric van Wincoop, 2013. "International Contagion through Leveraged Financial Institutions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 152-189, July.
    14. Kamin, Steven B. & DeMarco, Laurie Pounder, 2012. "How did a domestic housing slump turn into a global financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 10-41.
    15. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    16. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2011. "Evaluating international financial integration under leverage constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 427-442, April.
    17. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2012. "Risk, Monetary Policy, and the Exchange Rate," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 247-309.
    18. Edwards, Sebastian & Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 505-532, December.
    19. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-1244, September.
    20. Luca Dedola & Giovanni Lombardo, 2012. "Financial frictions, financial integration and the international propagation of shocks [Optimal monetary policy under commitment with a zero bound on nominal interest rates]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(70), pages 319-359.
    21. Kollmann, Robert & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 407-426, April.
    22. repec:bla:intfin:v:6:y:2003:i:2:p:179-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 15(2), pages 177-197, August.
    24. G. Andrew Karolyi, 2003. "Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 179-199, July.
    25. Albert S. Kyle & Wei Xiong, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2016. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 177-198, October.
    2. Cardani, Roberta & Hohberger, Stefan & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Vogel, Lukas, 2022. "Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.
    5. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
    6. Malamud, Semyon & Malkhozov, Aytek, 2016. "Market Integration and Global Crashes," CEPR Discussion Papers 11468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    8. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    9. Nicolas Reigl, 2023. "Noise shocks and business cycle fluctuations in three major European Economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 603-657, February.
    10. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2019. "Transmission of uncertainty shocks: Learning from heterogeneous responses on a panel of EU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 62-83.
    11. Marek Lubiński, 2013. "Międzybankowy rynek pieniężny i zarażenie," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 19-41.
    12. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor & Felix Ward, 2019. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 109-150, March.
    13. Bogdan Murarasu & Alina Bobasu, 2014. "Output Spillovers from Trade and Financial Linkages in Central and Eastern European Countries: A Panel Analysis," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 6(2), pages 081-096, December.
    14. Berger, Tino & Grabert, Sibylle & Kempa, Bernd, 2017. "Global macroeconomic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 42-56.
    15. Kevin Larcher & Jaebeom Kim & Youngju Kim, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks and asymmetric dynamics in Korea: a non-linear approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 594-610, February.
    16. L. GAUVIN & C. McLOUGHLIN & D. REINHARDT, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty in advanced countries and portfolio capital flows to emerging markets," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 34, november..

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2016. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 177-198, October.
    4. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Perri, Fabrizio, 2013. "Global banks and crisis transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 495-510.
    5. Trani, Tommaso, 2015. "Asset pledgeability and international transmission of financial shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-77.
    6. Brutti, Filippo & Sauré, Philip, 2015. "Transmission of sovereign risk in the Euro crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 231-248.
    7. Güneş Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2013. "Financial Exposure and the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 127-158, December.
    8. Cardani, Roberta & Hohberger, Stefan & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Vogel, Lukas, 2022. "Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Ohdoi, Ryoji, 2020. "Trade, Growth, and the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," MPRA Paper 100756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Platonov, Konstantin, 2024. "Confidence spillovers, financial contagion, and stagnation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    11. Bengui, Julien & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2013. "Capital mobility and international sharing of cyclical risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 42-62.
    12. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    13. Victoria Nuguer, 2016. "Financial Intermediation in a Global Environment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 291-344, September.
    14. Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks, and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 159-195, December.
    15. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor & Felix Ward, 2019. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 109-150, March.
    16. Gülçin Özkan & Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2012. "Global Financial Crisis, Financial Contagion, and Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2012/293, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, June.
    18. Xu, Yongdeng & Taylor, Nick & Lu, Wenna, 2018. "Illiquidity and volatility spillover effects in equity markets during and after the global financial crisis: An MEM approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 208-220.
    19. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Park, Cyn-Young & Byun, Hyung-suk, 2013. "Do contagion effects exist in capital flow volatility?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 76-95.
    20. Huang, Chai Liang, 2020. "International stock market co-movements following US financial globalization," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 788-814.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:062012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HKIMR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.