IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Risk, Monetary Policy, and the Exchange Rate

  • Gianluca Benigno
  • Pierpaolo Benigno
  • Salvatore Nistic�

In this research, we provide new empirical evidence on the importance of time-varying uncertainty for the exchange rate and the excess return in currency markets. Following an increase in monetary policy uncertainty, the dollar exchange rate appreciates in the medium run, while an increase in the volatility of productivity leads to a dollar depreciation. We propose a general-equilibrium theory of exchange rate determination based on the interaction between monetary policy and time-varying uncertainty aimed at understanding these regularities. In the model, the behaviour of the exchange rate following nominal and real volatility shocks is consistent with the empirical evidence. Furthermore we show that risk factors and interest-rate smoothing are important in accounting for the negative coefficient in the UIP regression.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/10.1086/663993
Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.

File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/full/10.1086/663993
Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal NBER Macroeconomics Annual.

Volume (Year): 26 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 247 - 309

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/663993
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/MA/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," 2006 Meeting Papers 872, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2010. "Second-Order Approximation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Risk," CEP Discussion Papers dp1033, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2014. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Working Papers 14-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  4. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Uribe, Martín, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Glenn Rudebusch & Eric Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Series 2008-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Charles Engel, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," NBER Working Papers 17116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Lombardo, Giovanni & Sutherland, Alan, 2005. "Computing second-order-accurate solutions for rational expectation models using linear solution methods," Working Paper Series 0487, European Central Bank.
  8. David K. Backus & Gregor W. Smith, 1993. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Economies with Non-Traded Goods," Working Papers 1252, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  10. Jesus Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Fortune or virtue: time-variant volatilities versus parameter drifting," Working Papers 10-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  11. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Exchange rate determination under interest rate rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 971-993, October.
  12. Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 2009. "Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with neither Sticky Prices nor Trade Costs," Working Papers 001, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
  13. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Ralph S.J. Koijen & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model with Recursive Preferences," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  14. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric, 2010. "Asset Return Dynamics Under Bad Environment-Good Environment Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 8150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  16. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
  17. David K. Backus & Federico Gavazzoni & Christopher Telmer & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  19. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1991. "Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international co-movements," Working Paper 9019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  20. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-51, July.
  21. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2009. "International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 14734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Benigno, Gianluca & De Paoli, Bianca, 2009. "On the International Dimension of Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7232, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, 04.
  24. Hess, Gregory D. & Shin, Kwanho, 2010. "Understanding the Backus-Smith puzzle: It's the (nominal) exchange rate, stupid," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 169-180, February.
  25. Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibrium Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1663-91, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/663993. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Journals Division)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.