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Limit theorems for nearly unstable Hawkes processes

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  • Thibault Jaisson
  • Mathieu Rosenbaum

Abstract

Because of their tractability and their natural interpretations in term of market quantities, Hawkes processes are nowadays widely used in high-frequency finance. However, in practice, the statistical estimation results seem to show that very often, only nearly unstable Hawkes processes are able to fit the data properly. By nearly unstable, we mean that the $L^1$ norm of their kernel is close to unity. We study in this work such processes for which the stability condition is almost violated. Our main result states that after suitable rescaling, they asymptotically behave like integrated Cox-Ingersoll-Ross models. Thus, modeling financial order flows as nearly unstable Hawkes processes may be a good way to reproduce both their high and low frequency stylized facts. We then extend this result to the Hawkes-based price model introduced by Bacry et al. [Quant. Finance 13 (2013) 65-77]. We show that under a similar criticality condition, this process converges to a Heston model. Again, we recover well-known stylized facts of prices, both at the microstructure level and at the macroscopic scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Thibault Jaisson & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2013. "Limit theorems for nearly unstable Hawkes processes," Papers 1310.2033, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1310.2033
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1310.2033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bowsher, Clive G., 2007. "Modelling security market events in continuous time: Intensity based, multivariate point process models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 876-912, December.
    2. Large, Jeremy, 2007. "Measuring the resiliency of an electronic limit order book," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Matthieu Wyart & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters & Michele Vettorazzo, 2008. "Relation between bid-ask spread, impact and volatility in order-driven markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 41-57.
    4. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. E. Bacry & S. Delattre & M. Hoffmann & J. F. Muzy, 2013. "Modelling microstructure noise with mutually exciting point processes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 65-77, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ying Jiao & Chunhua Ma & Simone Scotti, 2016. "Alpha-CIR Model with Branching Processes in Sovereign Interest Rate Modelling," Working Papers hal-01275397, HAL.
    2. Jim Gatheral & Martin Keller-Ressel, 2018. "Affine forward variance models," Papers 1801.06416, arXiv.org.
    3. Omar El Euch & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2016. "The characteristic function of rough Heston models," Papers 1609.02108, arXiv.org.
    4. El Euch Omar & Fukasawa Masaaki & Rosenbaum Mathieu, 2016. "The microstructural foundations of leverage effect and rough volatility," Papers 1609.05177, arXiv.org.
    5. Ying Jiao & Chunhua Ma & Simone Scotti, 2016. "Alpha-CIR Model with Branching Processes in Sovereign Interest Rate Modelling," Papers 1602.05541, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    6. Thibault Jaisson, 2014. "Market impact as anticipation of the order flow imbalance," Papers 1402.1288, arXiv.org.
    7. Thibault Jaisson & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2015. "Rough fractional diffusions as scaling limits of nearly unstable heavy tailed Hawkes processes," Papers 1504.03100, arXiv.org.
    8. Aurélien Alfonsi & Pierre Blanc, 2016. "Dynamic optimal execution in a mixed-market-impact Hawkes price model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 183-218, January.
    9. Aur'elien Alfonsi & Pierre Blanc, 2014. "Dynamic optimal execution in a mixed-market-impact Hawkes price model," Papers 1404.0648, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    10. Svetlozar & T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2016. "A New Set of Financial Instruments," Papers 1612.00828, arXiv.org.
    11. repec:eee:dyncon:v:79:y:2017:i:c:p:154-183 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Aurélien Alfonsi & Pierre Blanc, 2016. "Dynamic optimal execution in a mixed-market-impact Hawkes price model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 183-218, January.
    13. Emmanuel Bacry & Thibault Jaisson & Jean-Francois Muzy, 2014. "Estimation of slowly decreasing Hawkes kernels: Application to high frequency order book modelling," Papers 1412.7096, arXiv.org.
    14. Simon Clinet & Yoann Potiron, 2016. "Statistical inference for the doubly stochastic self-exciting process," Papers 1607.05831, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    15. Ulrich Horst & Wei Xu, 2017. "A Scaling Limit for Limit Order Books Driven by Hawkes Processes," Papers 1709.01292, arXiv.org.
    16. repec:spr:finsto:v:21:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s00780-017-0333-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:eee:stapro:v:127:y:2017:i:c:p:165-172 is not listed on IDEAS

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