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Market impact as anticipation of the order flow imbalance

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  • Thibault Jaisson

Abstract

In this paper, we assume that the permanent market impact of metaorders is linear and that the price is a martingale. Those two hypotheses enable us to derive the evolution of the price from the dynamics of the flow of market orders. For example, if the market order flow is assumed to follow a nearly unstable Hawkes process, we retrieve the apparent long memory of the flow together with a power law impact function, which is consistent with the celebrated square root law. We also link the long memory exponent of the sign of market orders with the impact function exponent. One of the originalities of our approach is that our results are derived without assuming that market participants are able to detect the beginning of metaorders.

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  • Thibault Jaisson, 2015. "Market impact as anticipation of the order flow imbalance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 1123-1135, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:15:y:2015:i:7:p:1123-1135
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2015.1013148
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehdi Tomas & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Michael Benzaquen, 2020. "How to build a cross-impact model from first principles: Theoretical requirements and empirical results," Papers 2004.01624, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    2. Erdinc Akyildirim & Shaen Corbet & Guzhan Gulay & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ahmet Sensoy, 2019. "Order Flow Persistence in Equity Spot and Futures Markets: Evidence from a Dynamic Emerging Market," Working Papers 2019-011, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    3. Mathieu Rosenbaum & Mehdi Tomas, 2021. "A characterisation of cross-impact kernels," Papers 2107.08684, arXiv.org.
    4. Mehdi Tomas & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Michael Benzaquen, 2020. "How to build a cross-impact model from first principles: Theoretical requirements and empirical results," Working Papers hal-02567489, HAL.
    5. Mehdi Tomas & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Michael Benzaquen, 2022. "How to build a cross-impact model from first principles: Theoretical requirements and empirical results," Post-Print hal-02567489, HAL.
    6. Thibault Jaisson, 2015. "Liquidity and Impact in Fair Markets," Papers 1506.02507, arXiv.org.
    7. Paul Jusselin & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2020. "No‐arbitrage implies power‐law market impact and rough volatility," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1309-1336, October.
    8. Paul Jusselin & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2018. "No-arbitrage implies power-law market impact and rough volatility," Papers 1805.07134, arXiv.org.

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