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Imperfect Central Bank Communication: Information versus Distraction

Author

Listed:
  • Spencer Dale

    (Bank of England)

  • Athanasios Orphanides

    (Central Bank of Cyprus)

  • Pär Österholm

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

Abstract

Much of the information communicated by central banks is noisy or imperfect. This paper considers the potential benefits and limitations of central bank communications in a model of imperfect knowledge and learning. It is shown that the value of communicating imperfect information is ambiguous. If the public is able to assess accurately the quality of the imperfect information communicated by a central bank, such communication can inform and improve the public’s decisions and expectations. But if not, communicating imperfect information has the potential to mislead and distract. The risk that imperfect communication may detract from the public’s understanding should be considered in the context of a central bank’s communications strategy. The risk of distraction means the central bank may prefer to focus its communication policies on the information it knows most about. Indeed, conveying more certain information may improve the public’s understanding to the extent that it “crowds out” a role for communicating imperfect information.

Suggested Citation

  • Spencer Dale & Athanasios Orphanides & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Imperfect Central Bank Communication: Information versus Distraction," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(2), pages 3-39, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2011:q:2:a:1
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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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