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Interest rate expectations and uncertainty during ECB Governing Council days: Evidence from intraday implied densities of 3-month EURIBOR

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  • Vergote, Olivier
  • Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria

Abstract

This paper analyses changes in short-term interest rate expectations and uncertainty during ECB Governing Council days. For this purpose, it extends the estimation of risk-neutral probability density functions up to tick frequency. In particular, the non-parametric estimator of these densities, which is based on fitting implied volatility curves, is applied to estimate intraday expectations of 3-month EURIBOR 3months ahead. Estimates of the noise impact on the statistical moments of the densities enhance the interpretation. In addition, the paper assesses the impact of the ECB communication during Governing Council days. The results show that the whole density may react to the communication and that such repositioning of market participants’ expectations will contain information beyond that of changes in the consensus view already observed in forward rates. The results also point out the relevance of the press conference in providing extra information and triggering an adjustment process for interest rate expectations.

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  • Vergote, Olivier & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2012. "Interest rate expectations and uncertainty during ECB Governing Council days: Evidence from intraday implied densities of 3-month EURIBOR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2804-2823.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:10:p:2804-2823
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.06.014
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Working Paper Series 1926, European Central Bank.
    3. A. Leonhardt & A. W. Rathgeber & J. Stadler & S. Stöckl, 2015. "Pricing fx forwards in OTC markets - new evidence for the pricing mechanism when faced with counterparty risk," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(27), pages 2860-2877, June.
    4. Roberto Casarin & Fabrizio Leisen & German Molina & Enrique ter Horst, 2014. "A Bayesian Beta Markov Random Field Calibration of the Term Structure of Implied Risk Neutral Densities," Papers 1409.1956, arXiv.org.
    5. Rui Fan & Stephen J. Taylor & Matteo Sandri, 2018. "Density forecast comparisons for stock prices, obtained from high‐frequency returns and daily option prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 83-103, January.
    6. Dalderop, Jeroen, 2020. "Nonparametric filtering of conditional state-price densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 295-325.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk-neutral probability density functions; Option-implied densities; Interest rate expectations; Central bank communication; Intraday analysis; Announcement effects; Tick data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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