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Central bank transparency and the crowding out of private information in an experimental asset market

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  • Menno Middeldorp
  • Stephanie Rosenkranz

Abstract

Central banks have become increasingly communicative. An important reason is that democratic societies expect more transparency from public institutions. Central bankers, based on empirical research, also believe that sharing information has economic benefits. Communication is seen as a way to improve the predictability of monetary policy, thereby lowering financial market volatility and contributing to a more stable economy. However, a potential side-effect of providing costless public information is that market participants may be less inclined to invest in private information. Theoretical results suggest that this can hamper the ability of markets to predict future monetary policy. We test this in a laboratory asset market. Crowding out of information acquisition does indeed take place, but only where it is most pronounced does the predictive ability of the market deteriorate. Notable features of the experiment include a complex setup based directly on the theoretical model and the calibration of experimental parameters using empirical measurements.

Suggested Citation

  • Menno Middeldorp & Stephanie Rosenkranz, 2011. "Central bank transparency and the crowding out of private information in an experimental asset market," Staff Reports 487, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:487
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency : A Survey," Discussion Paper 2007-06, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stelios D. Bekiros, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance in an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area: the Role of Expectations," Working Papers 201701, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    2. Yasushi Asako & Yukihiko Funaki & Kozo Ueda & Nobuyuki Uto, 2016. "Symmetric Information Bubbles: Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 1613, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    3. Baeriswyl Romain & Cornand Camille, 2016. "The Predominant Role of Signal Precision in Experimental Beauty Contests," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 267-301, January.
    4. Emna Trabelsi, 2016. "Transparency on inflation of OECD countries? An Application of LSDVC Estimator on a dynamic Panel Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 1095-1126.
    5. Kool, Clemens J. M. & Thornton, Daniel L., 2015. "How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(4), pages 303-322.
    6. Kene Boun My & Camille Cornand & Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira, 2017. "Speculation rather than enterprise? Keynes’ beauty contest revisited in theory and experiment," Working Papers of BETA 2017-13, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Maria Lucia Florez-Jimenez & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2016. "Forward guidance with an escape clause: when half a promise is better than a full one," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(15), pages 1372-1381, March.
    8. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Vincent Touze, 2013. "Politiques monétaires : est-ce le début de la fin ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6mun, Sciences Po.
    9. Alfarano, Simone & Camacho, Eva & Petrovic, Marko & Provenzano, Giulia, 2014. "The Interplay between Public and Private Information in Asset Markets: Theoretical and Experimental Approaches," FinMaP-Working Papers 9, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    10. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Ma, Yong & Li, Shushu, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of China's monetary policy transparency: A New Keynesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 236-248.

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    Keywords

    Banks and banking; Central ; Monetary policy ; Disclosure of information;

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