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Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches

Author

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  • Ludwig Straub

    (Harvard University)

  • Robert Ulbricht

    (Boston College)

Abstract

We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty in which the ability of investors to learn about firm-level fundamentals is impaired during financial crises. At the same time, higher uncertainty reinforces financial distress. Through this two-way feedback loop, a temporary financial shock can cause a persistent reduction in risky lending, output, and employment that coincides with increased uncertainty, default rates, credit spreads and disagreement among forecasters. We embed our mechanism into standard real business cycle and New-Keynesian models and show how it generates endogenous and internally persistent processes for the efficiency and labor wedges.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludwig Straub & Robert Ulbricht, 2020. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1036, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 13 Jan 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:1036
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous uncertainty; financial crises; internal persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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