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Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches

Author

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  • Ludwig Straub

    (Harvard University)

  • Robert Ulbricht

    (Boston College)

Abstract

We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty in which the ability of investors to learn about firm-level fundamentals is impaired during financial crises. At the same time, higher uncertainty reinforces financial distress. Through this two-way feedback loop, a temporary financial shock can cause a persistent reduction in risky lending, output, and employment that coincides with increased uncertainty, default rates, credit spreads and disagreement among forecasters. We embed our mechanism into standard real business cycle and New-Keynesian models and show how it generates endogenous and internally persistent processes for the efficiency and labor wedges.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludwig Straub & Robert Ulbricht, 2020. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1036, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 13 Jan 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:1036
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2017. "A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty," Working Papers 1705, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Robert Ulbricht & Ludwig Straub, 2015. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches," 2015 Meeting Papers 199, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Tyler Atkinson & Michael Plante & Alexander Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton, 2022. "Complementarity and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 225-243, April.
    4. Isaac Baley & Ana Figueiredo & Robert Ulbricht, 2022. "Mismatch Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(11), pages 2943-2984.
    5. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
    6. Lorenzo Ricci & Giovanni Soggia & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2022. "The Impact of Bank Lending Standards on Credit to Firms," Working Papers ECARES 2022-01, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_037 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Edouard Schaal & Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, 2017. "Uncertainty Traps," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1641-1692.
    9. Gaetano Gaballo, 2016. "Rational Inattention to News: The Perils of Forward Guidance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 42-97, January.
    10. Gete, Pedro & Melkadze, Givi, 2018. "Aggregate volatility and international dynamics. The role of credit supply," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 143-158.
    11. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Dispersed Information and Asset Prices," Working Papers hal-03118639, HAL.
    12. Straub, Ludwig & Ulbricht, Robert, 2019. "Endogenous second moments: A unified approach to fluctuations in risk, dispersion, and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 625-660.
    13. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
    14. Joshua Bernstein & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2021. "Countercyclical Fluctuations in Uncertainty are Endogenous," Working Papers 2109, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Hikaru Saijo & Cosmin Ilut, 2015. "Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles," 2015 Meeting Papers 917, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Vladimir Asriyan & Luc Laeven & Alberto Martín, 2022. "Collateral Booms and Information Depletion [Rational Exuberance Booms]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(2), pages 517-555.
    17. Kyriakos T. Chousakos & Gary B. Gorton & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2020. "The Macroprudential Role of Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 27113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Albagli, Elias & Hellwig, Christian & Tsyvinski, Aleh, 2021. "Information Aggregation with Asymmetric Asset Payoffs," TSE Working Papers 21-1172, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Apr 2023.
    19. Claudio Michelacci & Luigi Paciello, 2020. "Aggregate Risk or Aggregate Uncertainty? Evidence from UK Households," EIEF Working Papers Series 2006, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2020.
    20. Brendon, Charles & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2016. "COEURE Survey: Fiscal and Monetary Policies after the Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 11088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Gene Ambrocio, 2020. "Rational exuberance booms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 263-282, January.
    22. Valeriu Nalban & Andra Smadu, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and the monetary-macroprudential policy mix," Working Papers 739, DNB.
    23. repec:zbw:bofrdp:037 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Joshua Bernstein & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2021. "Nonlinear Search and Matching Explained," Working Papers 2106, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous uncertainty; financial crises; internal persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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