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Risk and Ambiguity in Models of Business Cycles

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  • David Backus
  • Axelle Ferriere
  • Stanley Zin

Abstract

We inject aggregate uncertainty - risk and ambiguity - into an otherwise standard business cycle model and describe its consequences. We find that increases in uncertainty generally reduce consumption, but they do not account, in this model, for either the magnitude or the persistence of the most recent recession. We speculate about extensions that might do better along one or both dimensions.

Suggested Citation

  • David Backus & Axelle Ferriere & Stanley Zin, 2014. "Risk and Ambiguity in Models of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 20319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20319
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    Cited by:

    1. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "The Tail That Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 2839-2879.
    2. Bonciani, Dario & Oh, Joonseok Jason, 2019. "The long-run effects of uncertainty shocks," Bank of England working papers 802, Bank of England.
    3. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2018. "The global effects of global risk and uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2179, European Central Bank.
    4. Claudio Michelacci & Luigi Paciello, 2017. "Ambiguous Policy Announcements," EIEF Working Papers Series 1701, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Dec 2017.
    5. Straub, Ludwig & Ulbricht, Robert, 2015. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches," TSE Working Papers 15-604, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Dec 2017.
    6. Venky Venkateswaran & Laura Veldkamp & Julian Kozlowski, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation," 2015 Meeting Papers 800, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2019. "The Tail That Keeps the Riskless Rate Low," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 253-283.
    8. Pierlauro Lopez & David Lopez-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2018. "Risk-Adjusted Linearizations of Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Working papers 702, Banque de France.
    9. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2019. "Generalized entropy and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 312-343.
    10. Massimo Marinacci, 2015. "Model Uncertainty," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1022-1100, December.
    11. Sumru Altug & Cem Cakmakli & Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Han Ozsoylev, . "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Joel M. David & Espen Henriksen & Ina Simonovska, 2014. "The Risky Capital of Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 20769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. A. Ronald Gallant & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Hening Liu, 2015. "Measuring Ambiguity Aversion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-105, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 23 Nov 2015.
    14. Bäuerle, Nicole & Jaśkiewicz, Anna, 2018. "Stochastic optimal growth model with risk sensitive preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 181-200.
    15. Backus, David & Coleman, Chase & Ferriere, Axelle & Lyon, Spencer, 2016. "Pareto weights as wedges in two-country models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 98-110.
    16. Sumru Altug & Cem Cakmakli & Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Han Ozsoylev, . "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Claudio Michelacci & Luigi Paciello, 2020. "Aggregate Risk or Aggregate Uncertainty? Evidence from UK Households," EIEF Working Papers Series 2006, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2020.
    18. Li Zhe & Luo Shuixing, 2019. "Is risk shock a key factor driving business cycles in China?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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