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Risk and ambiguity in models of business cycles

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  • Backus, David
  • Ferriere, Axelle
  • Zin, Stanley

Abstract

We inject aggregate uncertainty — risk and ambiguity — into an otherwise standard business cycle model and describe its consequences. We find that increases in uncertainty generally reduce consumption, but they do not account, in this model, for either the magnitude or the persistence of the most recent recession. We speculate about extensions that might do better along one or both dimensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Backus, David & Ferriere, Axelle & Zin, Stanley, 2015. "Risk and ambiguity in models of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-63.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:69:y:2015:i:c:p:42-63
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.12.005
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 21719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bonciani, Dario & Oh, Joonseok Jason, 2019. "The long-run effects of uncertainty shocks," Bank of England working papers 802, Bank of England.
    3. Claudio Michelacci & Luigi Paciello, 2017. "Ambiguous Policy Announcements," EIEF Working Papers Series 1701, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Dec 2017.
    4. Straub, Ludwig & Ulbricht, Robert, 2015. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches," TSE Working Papers 15-604, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Dec 2017.
    5. Venky Venkateswaran & Laura Veldkamp & Julian Kozlowski, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation," 2015 Meeting Papers 800, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2019. "The Tail That Keeps the Riskless Rate Low," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 253-283.
    7. Pierlauro Lopez & David Lopez-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2018. "Risk-Adjusted Linearizations of Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Working papers 702, Banque de France.
    8. Massimo Marinacci, 2015. "Model Uncertainty," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1022-1100, December.
    9. Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2017. "Generalized Entropy and Model Uncertainty," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2017-017, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Joel M. David & Espen Henriksen & Ina Simonovska, 2014. "The Risky Capital of Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 20769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Gallant, A. Ronald & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad & Liu, Hening, 2015. "Measuring Ambiguity Aversion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-105, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    12. repec:eee:jetheo:v:173:y:2018:i:c:p:181-200 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. David Backus & Chase Coleman & Axelle Ferriere & Spencer Lyon, 2016. "Pareto weights as wedges in two-country models," Working Papers 16-07, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    14. Backus, David & Coleman, Chase & Ferriere, Axelle & Lyon, Spencer, 2016. "Pareto weights as wedges in two-country models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 98-110.
    15. David Backus & Chase Coleman & Axelle Ferriere & Spencer Lyon, 2015. "Pareto weights as wedges in two-country models," Working Papers 15-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    16. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2018. "The global effects of global risk and uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2179, European Central Bank.
    17. repec:bpj:bejmac:v:19:y:2019:i:1:p:18:n:2 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Smooth ambiguity; Certainty equivalent; Recursive preferences; Pricing kernel; Asset returns; Learning;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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