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Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches

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  • Straub, Ludwig
  • Ulbricht, Robert

Abstract

We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty where the ability of investors to learn about firm-level fundamentals declines during financial crises. At the same time, higher uncertainty reinforces financial distress, causing a persistent cycle of uncertainty, pessimistic expectations, and financial constraints. Through this channel, a temporary shortage of funds can develop into a long-lasting funding problem for firms. Financial crises are characterized by increased credit misallocation, volatile asset prices, high risk premia, an increased cross-sectional dispersion of returns, and high levels of disagreement among forecasters. A numerical example suggests that the proposed channel may significantly delay recovery from financial shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Straub, Ludwig & Ulbricht, Robert, 2015. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches," TSE Working Papers 15-604, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Dec 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:29800
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel, 2017. "A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty," Working Papers 1705, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 23 Feb 2018.
    2. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
    3. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Edouard Schaal & Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, 2017. "Uncertainty Traps," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1641-1692.
    4. Gaetano Gaballo, 2016. "Rational Inattention to News: The Perils of Forward Guidance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 42-97, January.
    5. repec:eee:inecon:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:143-158 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hikaru Saijo & Cosmin Ilut, 2015. "Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles," 2015 Meeting Papers 917, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Gene Ambrocio, . "Rational exuberance booms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Straub, Ludwig & Ulbricht, Robert, 2016. "Endogenous Second Moments: A Unified Approach to Fluctuations in Risk, Dispersion, and Uncertainty," TSE Working Papers 16-664, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Mar 2018.
    9. Vladimir Asriyan & Luc Laeven & Alberto Martin, 2018. "Collateral booms and information depletion," Economics Working Papers 1622, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2019.
    10. Brendon, Charles & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2016. "COEURE Survey: Fiscal and Monetary Policies after the Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 11088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Belief traps; credit crunches; dispersed information; endogenous uncertainty; internal persistence of financial shocks; resource misallocation;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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