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Private Uncertainty and Multiplicity

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  • Gaballo, G.

Abstract

This paper provides the conditions under which small enough private uncertainty on an aggregate endogenous state of the economy can invalidate uniqueness of the equilibrium. The main result is presented in a fully microfounded macroeconomic model where agents learn from arising prices. The findings apply to a broad class of static signal extraction problems where both fundamental correlation and pay-off externalities jointly contribute to a multiplicity of equilibria. The cases where only one of these two determinants is sufficient for a multiplicity are also isolated and discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaballo, G., 2012. "Private Uncertainty and Multiplicity," Working papers 387, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:387
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Jayant Vivek Ganguli & Liyan Yang, 2009. "Complementarities, Multiplicity, and Supply Information," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 90-115, March.
    5. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2015. "Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 549-585, March.
    6. Manuel Amador & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(5), pages 866-907.
    7. George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2010. "Beauty Contests and "Irrational Exuberance": A Neoclassical Approach," Discussion Papers 1502, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    8. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September.
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    11. Hellwig, Christian & Venkateswaran, Venky, 2009. "Setting the right prices for the wrong reasons," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 57-77.
    12. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2013. "Good luck or good policy? An expectational theory of macro volatility switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2755-2770.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barthélemy, J. & Marx, M., 2012. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle: New Comment," Working papers 403, Banque de France.
    2. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2013. "Uncertainty and Sentiment-Driven Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 18878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2013. "Good luck or good policy? An expectational theory of macro volatility switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2755-2770.
    4. Gaetano Gaballo, 2016. "Rational Inattention to News: The Perils of Forward Guidance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 42-97, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dispersed information; coordination of expectations; second-order beliefs.;

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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