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Uncertainty and Sentiment-Driven Equilibria

  • Jess Benhabib
  • Pengfei Wang
  • Yi Wen

We construct a model to capture the Keynesian idea that production and employment decisions are based on expectations of aggregate demand driven by sentiments, and that realized demand follows from the production and employment decisions of firms. We cast the Keynesian idea into a simple model with imperfect information about aggregate demand and we characterize the rational expectations equilibria of this model. We find that the equilibrium is not unique despite the absence of any non-convexities or strategic complementarity in the model. In addition to multiple fundamental equilibria, there can be serially correlated stochastic equilibria driven by self-fulfilling consumer sentiments. Furthermore, these sentiment-driven equilibria are not based on randomizations of the fundamental equilibria

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18878.

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Date of creation: Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18878
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  1. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Sentiments and aggregate demand fluctuations," Working Papers 2012-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Manzano, Carolina & Vives, Xavier, 2010. "Public and Private Learning from Prices, Strategic Substitutability and Complementarity, and Equilibrium Multiplicity," CEPR Discussion Papers 7949, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Christian Hellwig & Laura Veldkamp, 2006. "Knowing what others Know: Coordination motives in information acquisition," 2006 Meeting Papers 361, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Manuel Amador & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(5), pages 866 - 907.
  5. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  6. Aleh Tsyvinski & Arijit Mukherji & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1769-1787, December.
  7. Ivan Werning & George-Marios Angeletos, 2005. "Crises and Prices: Information Aggregation, Multiplicity and Volatility," 2005 Meeting Papers 284, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Dirk Bergemann & Tibor Heumann & Stephen Morris, 2013. "Information, Interdependence, and Interaction: Where Does the Volatility Come From?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1928, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Aumann, Robert J., 1974. "Subjectivity and correlation in randomized strategies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 67-96, March.
  10. Forges, Francoise & Peck, James, 1995. "Correlated Equilibrium and Sunspot Equilibrium," Economic Theory, Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 5(1), pages 33-50, January.
  11. Spear, Stephen E, 1989. "Are Sunspots Necessary?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 965-73, August.
  12. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2003. "Coordination and Policy Traps," NBER Working Papers 9767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/157 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2005. "Signaling in a Global Game: Coordination and Policy Traps," Discussion Papers 1400, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  15. Morris, S & Song Shin, H, 1996. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Economics Papers 126, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  16. Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 1987. "Correlated equilibria and sunspots," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 364-373, December.
  17. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  18. Gaballo, G., 2012. "Private Uncertainty and Multiplicity," Working papers 387, Banque de France.
  19. James Peck & Karl Shell, 1991. "Market Uncertainty: Correlated and Sunspot Equilibria in Imperfectly Competitive Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(5), pages 1011-1029.
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