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Private information and sunspots in sequential asset markets

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  • Benhabib, Jess
  • Wang, Pengfei

Abstract

We study a model where some agents have private information about risky asset returns and trade to obtain capital gains, while others acquire the risky asset and hold it to maturity, forming expectations of returns based on market prices. We show that under such a structure, in addition to fully revealing rational expectations equilibria, there exists a continuum of equilibrium prices consistent with rational expectations, where the asset prices are subject to sunspot shocks. Such sunspot shocks can generate persistent fluctuations in asset prices that look like a random walk in an efficient market.

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  • Benhabib, Jess & Wang, Pengfei, 2015. "Private information and sunspots in sequential asset markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 558-584.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:158:y:2015:i:pb:p:558-584
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2014.12.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Fehr, Dietmar & Heinemann, Frank & Llorente-Saguer, Aniol, 2019. "The power of sunspots: An experimental analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 123-136.
    2. Boyan Jovanovic & Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2022. "Trading on Sunspots," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(12), pages 3970-3994, December.
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    5. Wang, Hanjie & Feil, Jan-Henning & Yu, Xiaohua, 2021. "Disagreement on sunspots and soybeans futures price," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 385-393.
    6. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-75, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    7. Paymon Khorrami & Fernando Mendo, 2021. "Rational Sentiments and Financial Frictions," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 928, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Jordi Mondria & Xavier Vives & Liyan Yang, 2022. "Costly Interpretation of Asset Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 52-74, January.
    9. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    10. Pavan, Alessandro & Vives, Xavier, 2015. "Information, Coordination, and Market Frictions: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 407-426.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    The Grossman–Stiglitz paradox; Sunspots;

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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