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Financial crises in efficient markets: How fundamentalists fuel volatility

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  • Szafarz, Ariane

Abstract

When a financial crisis breaks out, speculators typically get the blame whereas fundamentalists are presented as the safeguard against excessive volatility. This paper proposes an asset pricing model where two types of rational traders coexist: short-term speculators and long-term fundamentalists, both sharing the same information set. In this framework, excess volatility not only exists, but is actually fueled by fundamental trading. Consequently, efficient markets are more volatile with a few speculators than with many speculators. Regulators should therefore be aware that efforts to limit rational speculation might, surprisingly, end up increasing volatility.

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  • Szafarz, Ariane, 2012. "Financial crises in efficient markets: How fundamentalists fuel volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 105-111.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:1:p:105-111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.06.008
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lof, Matthijs, 2013. "Essays on Expectations and the Econometrics of Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 59064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Xavier De Scheemaekere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2014. "Issues in Identifying Economic Crises: Insights from History," Working Papers CEB 14-014, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Oscar Bernal Diaz & Astrid Herinckx & Ariane Szafarz, 2014. "Which short-selling regulation is the least damaging to market efficiency? Evidence from Europe," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 37, pages 244-256, March.
    4. Brière, Marie & Chapelle, Ariane & Szafarz, Ariane, 2012. "No contagion, only globalization and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1729-1744.
    5. Matthijs Lof, 2015. "Rational Speculators, Contrarians, and Excess Volatility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(8), pages 1889-1901, August.
    6. Hiremath, Gourishankar S. & Narayan, Seema, 2016. "Testing the adaptive market hypothesis and its determinants for the Indian stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 173-180.
    7. Benoît D'Udekem, 2014. "Bank Cash Holdings and Investor Uncertainty," Working Papers CEB 14-002, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Efficient markets; Speculators; Fundamentalists; Speculative bubbles; Liquidity;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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