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Uncertainty and sentiment-driven equilibria

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  • Jess Benhabib
  • Pengfei Wang
  • Yi Wen

Abstract

We construct a model to capture the Keynesian idea that production and employment decisions are based on expectations of aggregate demand driven by sentiments and that realized demand follows from the production and employment decisions of firms. We cast the Keynesian idea into a simple model with imperfect information about aggregate demand and we characterize the rational expectations equilibria of this model. We find that the equilibrium is not unique despite the absence of any non-convexities or strategic complementarity in the model. In addition to multiple fundamental equilibria, there can be serially correlated stochastic equilibria driven by self-fulfilling consumer sentiments. Furthermore, these sentiment-driven equilibria are not based on randomizations of the fundamental equilibria.

Suggested Citation

  • Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2013. "Uncertainty and sentiment-driven equilibria," Working Papers 2013-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Francesco Giuli & Enrico Marchetti, 2017. "Prospect Theory And Self-Fulfilling Market Sentiments," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0216, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    2. Benhabib, Jess & Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei, 2016. "Sentiments, financial markets, and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 420-443.
    3. Benhabib, Jess & Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei, 2016. "Endogenous information acquisition and countercyclical uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 601-642.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty ; Equilibrium (Economics);

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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